Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

· Estadio do Fontelo, Viseu· Referee Joao Goncalves

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Academico Viseu to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Academico ViseuDrawRio Ave

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAcademico ViseuDrawRio Ave
Model66%22%12%
Market51%26%22%
Published55%25%20%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Academico Viseu, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.04Now 1.85 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Academico Viseu2.041.85-0.19
Draw3.463.56+0.10
Rio Ave3.544.20+0.66

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Academico Viseu and Rio Ave expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Academico Viseu
0.71Rio Ave
Total expected goals
2.68
Attack rating (Academico Viseu / Rio Ave)
0.96 / 0.77
Defence rating (Academico Viseu / Rio Ave)
0.75 / 1.42

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 3.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1 12.5% 10.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.3% 9.5% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 8.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 6.7% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Academico Viseu goals. Columns: Rio Ave goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Academico Viseu55%1.82
Draw25%3.93
Rio Ave20%5.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.23
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (Academico Viseu or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Rio Ave)45%2.21
Handicap -1Academico Viseu win by 2+42%2.41
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Academico Viseu and Rio Ave recent form

Academico Viseu 5W 0D 1L
Rio Ave 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Academico Viseu at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rio Ave away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
  • 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Academico Viseu at home only, Rio Ave away only.

Expected lineups

Academico Viseu lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Ewerton
  2. 3 Miguel Brau
  3. 2 N. Michelis
  4. 41 A. Correia
  5. 75 Robinho
  6. 14 S. Messeguem
  7. 7 Luís Silva
  8. 22 Nils Mortimer
  9. 8 C. Kahraman
  10. 31 João Guilherme
  11. 33 André Clóvis

Bench: Pedro Barcelos, André Ceitil, M. Bouldini, Á. Zamora, Juan Soriano, Valery, C. Ferreira, Tomás Domingos, Alejandro Mestanza, L. Gohi, G. Costa, H. Gambor

Rio Ave lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 99 E. van der Gouw
  2. 17 M. Vrousai
  3. 39 Gustavo Mancha
  4. 5 A. Ntoi
  5. 20 João Tomé
  6. 54 G. Liavas
  7. 79 M. Patricio
  8. 80 S. Clemmensen
  9. 90 Diogo Nascimento
  10. 7 Diogo Bezerra
  11. 11 J. Blesa

Bench: Ryan Guilherme, Tamble Monteiro, B. Aguilera, J. Lomboto, M. Sellouki, F. Petrasso, T. Medina, R. Galčík, Vitor Hugo, T. Nikitscher, D. Špikić

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Academico Viseu 1 · draws 0 · Rio Ave 3.

Academico ViseuDrawsRio Ave
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-07-22Rio Ave3-0Academico ViseuTaça da Liga
2022-07-30Rio Ave1-0Academico ViseuFriendlies Clubs
2022-03-18Academico Viseu0-1Rio AveSegunda Liga
2021-10-31Rio Ave1-2Academico ViseuSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match