Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Maritimo vs Santa Clara

· Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal· Referee Carlos Macedo

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Santa Clara to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MaritimoDrawSanta Clara

Maritimo vs Santa Clara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMaritimoDrawSanta Clara
Model19%25%56%
Market27%30%43%
Published25%29%46%
Edge-2%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Santa Clara below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Maritimo vs Santa Clara odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Santa Clara, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.50Now 2.20 -0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Maritimo3.143.42+0.28
Draw3.193.10-0.09
Santa Clara2.502.20-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Maritimo and Santa Clara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.98Maritimo
1.84Santa Clara
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (Maritimo / Santa Clara)
0.84 / 1.04
Defence rating (Maritimo / Santa Clara)
1.44 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Maritimo vs Santa Clara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 9.9% 10.1% 6.2% 4.3% 1 4.8% 11.8% 9.9% 6.1% 4.2% 2 2.9% 5.3% 4.8% 3.0% 2.1% 3 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Maritimo goals. Columns: Santa Clara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Maritimo vs Santa Clara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Maritimo vs Santa Clara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Maritimo25%3.97
Draw29%3.47
Santa Clara46%2.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.87
No46%2.15
Double chance1X (Maritimo or draw)54%1.85
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Santa Clara)75%1.34
Handicap -1Santa Clara win by 2+33%3.01
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Maritimo and Santa Clara recent form

Maritimo 1W 1D 4L
Santa Clara 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Maritimo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Santa Clara away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Maritimo at home only, Santa Clara away only.

Expected lineups

Maritimo lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 30 Fran Vieites
  2. 44 Romain Correia
  3. 4 Rafael Fernandes
  4. 22 G. Szalai
  5. 23 Paulo Henrique
  6. 14 Raphael Guzzo
  7. 6 Rodrigo Andrade
  8. 2 Igor Julião
  9. 10 Martín Tejón
  10. 17 Adrián Butzke
  11. 12 M. Bassouamina

Bench: Gonçalo Tabuaço, N. Ogbeta, Nilton Varela, M. Diouri, Alfonso Pastor, Tomás Tavares, V. Danilović, I. Alani, S. Bamba, I. Ayuma, Maurice Osei Boakye

Santa Clara lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 Neneca
  2. 5 Guilherme Romão
  3. 21 Emanuel Fernandes
  4. 4 Pedro Pacheco
  5. 42 Lucas Soares
  6. 20 Tiago Ribeiro
  7. 41 Daniel Borges
  8. 8 José Luís Rocha Tavares
  9. 70 Vinícius Lopes
  10. 7 Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira
  11. 10 Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

Bench: Henrique Silva, Welinton Torrão, João Vasconcelos, Vitinho, Léo Jacó, Seydou Fofana, Sorriso

Maritimo vs Santa Clara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Maritimo 4 · draws 2 · Santa Clara 4.

MaritimoDrawsSanta Clara
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-14Maritimo0-0Santa ClaraSegunda Liga
2023-12-03Santa Clara2-1MaritimoSegunda Liga
2023-02-25Maritimo3-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2022-09-04Santa Clara2-1MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2022-07-29Maritimo1-0Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-23Santa Clara2-2MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2021-12-11Maritimo4-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2021-02-08Maritimo1-2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2020-09-20Santa Clara2-0MaritimoPrimeira Liga
2020-07-03Santa Clara0-1MaritimoPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match