Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC

· Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos· Referee Helder Carvalho

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Vitória SC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GIL VicenteDrawVitória SC

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGIL VicenteDrawVitória SC
Model33%33%33%
Market33%31%37%
Published33%31%36%
Edge0%+1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vitória SC, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 2.67Now 2.58 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GIL Vicente2.702.88+0.18
Draw3.153.10-0.05
Vitória SC2.672.58-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01GIL Vicente
1.01Vitória SC
Total expected goals
2.01
Attack rating (GIL Vicente / Vitória SC)
0.83 / 0.93
Defence rating (GIL Vicente / Vitória SC)
0.88 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 12.1% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7% 1 12.1% 14.9% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7% 2 6.8% 6.8% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: GIL Vicente goals. Columns: Vitória SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GIL Vicente33%3.03
Draw31%3.20
Vitória SC36%2.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.06
Under 2.567%1.49
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.40
No58%1.71
Double chance1X (GIL Vicente or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Vitória SC)67%1.49
Handicap -1Vitória SC win by 2+13%7.62
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC recent form

GIL Vicente 3W 1D 2L
Vitória SC 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GIL Vicente at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Vitória SC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: GIL Vicente at home only, Vitória SC away only.

Expected lineups

GIL Vicente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Lucão
  2. 45 David Moreira
  3. 39 Jonathan Buatu
  4. 47 Ricardo Esgaio
  5. 2 José Silva
  6. 86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste
  7. 12 A. Lausen
  8. 7 T. Touré
  9. 10 Santi García
  10. 77 Murilo
  11. 9 Walace

Bench: Zé Carlos, Joelson Fernandes, Sergio Bermejo, Guilherme, Gil Pinto Martins, Weverson, A. Moreira, M. Fernández, Gonçalo Maia Pereira, Samuel, M. Kaba

Vitória SC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Lucas Furtado
  2. 13 João Mendes
  3. 5 A. Sidibé
  4. 21 T. Borevković
  5. 23 T. Strata
  6. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira
  7. 16 Beni
  8. 7 O. Camara
  9. 20 Samu
  10. 11 Gustavo
  11. 9 A. Jakupovic

Bench: Miguel Maga, Óscar Rivas, M. Mitrović, Alan, Miguel Nogueira, V. Andersson, A. Ndoye, Thiago Balieiro, V. Ouotro, L. Doucet, O. Zych

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: GIL Vicente 2 · draws 1 · Vitória SC 7.

GIL VicenteDrawsVitória SC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18GIL Vicente0-1Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2025-12-08Vitória SC0-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2025-04-11GIL Vicente0-1Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2024-12-02Vitória SC4-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2024-02-08Vitória SC3-1GIL VicenteTaça de Portugal
2024-01-28GIL Vicente1-0Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2023-08-19Vitória SC2-1GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2023-05-21Vitória SC1-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2023-01-16GIL Vicente2-1Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
2022-05-15Vitória SC5-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match