Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: model vs market
| Source | Falkirk | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Falkirk, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 1.83 | 1.85 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.84 | +0.04 |
| Kilmarnock | 3.90 | 3.88 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Falkirk and Kilmarnock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Falkirk / Kilmarnock)
- 0.84 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Falkirk / Kilmarnock)
- 1.13 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Falkirk goals. Columns: Kilmarnock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Kilmarnock | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Falkirk or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkirk win by 2+ | 20% | 5.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Falkirk and Kilmarnock recent form
Falkirk
2W 2D 2L
Kilmarnock
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Falkirk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Kilmarnock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Falkirk at home only, Kilmarnock away only.
Expected lineups
Falkirk lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 19 S. Bain
- 3 L. McCann
- 5 L. Henderson
- 15 L. Neilson
- 22 R. Strain
- 8 B. Spencer
- 16 Finley Frank Barbrook
- 21 D. Meļņiks
- 42 Owen Eames
- 23 E. Ross
- 24 J. Murrell
Bench: N. Hogarth, J. McMillan, Ben Parkinson, R. MacIver, C. Sibbald, F. Yeats, S. Tanser, C. McLeod, C. Fodrey
Kilmarnock lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 12 C. Ferrie
- 21 M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 14 G. Stanger
- 4 C. McCarthy
- 2 J. Brandon
- 18 T. Lowery
- 36 A. Tshibola
- 11 G. Kiltie
- 10 T. John-Jules
- 8 E. Ring
- 9 J. Hugill
Bench: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara, M. O'Hara, R. Deas, R. McKenzie, J. Meier, N. Cleșcenco, I. Owen, D. Daniels, N. Mantl
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Falkirk 4 · draws 0 · Kilmarnock 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Falkirk | 5-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-20 | Kilmarnock | 0-1 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-01 | Falkirk | 3-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2022-06-24 | Falkirk | 1-4 | Kilmarnock | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-09-04 | Kilmarnock | 3-1 | Falkirk | Challenge Cup |
| 2020-10-06 | Falkirk | 3-0 | Kilmarnock | League Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- ST Mirren vs Dundee — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rangers v ST Johnstone — match page 2026-10-24
- Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Hibernian v Celtic — match page 2026-10-25
- Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Falkirk, previous: Hibernian vs Falkirk: odds and pick
- Falkirk, next: Aberdeen vs Falkirk prediction
- Kilmarnock, previous: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell prediction
- Kilmarnock, next: Dundee – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-28