Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 9

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian

· Celtic Park, Glasgow· Referee D. Dickinson

Full time7 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Celtic to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CelticDrawHeart Of Midlothian

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelticDrawHeart Of Midlothian
Model42%24%34%
Market60%21%19%
Published55%22%23%
Edge-4%+1%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 57 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.44Now 1.57 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celtic1.441.57+0.13
Draw4.504.45-0.05
Heart Of Midlothian6.284.88-1.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Celtic
1.62Heart Of Midlothian
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (Celtic / Heart Of Midlothian)
1.21 / 1.28
Defence rating (Celtic / Heart Of Midlothian)
1.05 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 2.3% 1.3% 1 4.9% 10.4% 7.7% 4.1% 2.4% 2 5.3% 8.6% 7.0% 3.8% 2.2% 3 3.2% 5.2% 4.2% 2.3% 1.3% 4+ 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9%

Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celtic55%1.81
Draw22%4.57
Heart Of Midlothian23%4.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.01
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.14
Double chance1X (Celtic or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian)45%2.24
Handicap -1Celtic win by 2+23%4.34
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian recent form

Celtic 3W 0D 3L
Heart Of Midlothian 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celtic at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Heart Of Midlothian away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celtic at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.

Expected lineups

Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 V. Sinisalo
  2. 63 K. Tierney
  3. 5 L. Scales
  4. 47 D. Murray
  5. 51 Colby Donovan
  6. 22 M. Baur
  7. 42 C. McGregor
  8. 11 C. Durán
  9. 8 B. Nygren
  10. 23 H. Hassan
  11. 19 C. Osmand

Bench: A. Trusty, Jota, K. Høgh, L. Emenalo, O. Sørensen, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain, S. Johnstone, Shumaira Mheuka, J. Forrest

Heart Of Midlothian lineup · 4-4-1-1

  1. 1 B. Reus
  2. 3 S. Kingsley
  3. 5 J. McCart
  4. 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
  5. 23 J. Altena
  6. 15 J. McPake
  7. 6 O. McEntee
  8. 78 L. Mendy
  9. 7 C. Miller
  10. 19 S. Guendouz
  11. 10 Cláudio Braga

Bench: J. Williams, S. Findlay, H. Milne, J. Wilson, T. Magnússon, S. Kerjota, R. Fulton, R. Mato, A. Ba-Sy

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Celtic 5 · draws 1 · Heart Of Midlothian 4.

CelticDrawsHeart Of Midlothian
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Celtic3-1Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2026-01-25Heart Of Midlothian2-2CelticScotland Premiership
2025-12-07Celtic1-2Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2025-10-26Heart Of Midlothian3-1CelticScotland Premiership
2025-03-29Celtic3-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-11-23Heart Of Midlothian1-4CelticPremiership
2024-09-14Celtic2-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-05-04Celtic3-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-03-03Heart Of Midlothian2-0CelticPremiership
2023-12-16Celtic0-2Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match