Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 10

ST Mirren vs Dundee

· The SMiSA Stadium, Paisley· Referee S. McLean

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was ST Mirren to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ST MirrenDrawDundee

ST Mirren vs Dundee: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceST MirrenDrawDundee
Model22%26%52%
Market42%26%32%
Published37%26%37%
Edge-5%0%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

ST Mirren vs Dundee odds movement

Median bookmaker price on ST Mirren, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.00Now 2.25 +0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
ST Mirren2.002.25+0.25
Draw3.623.60-0.02
Dundee3.353.00-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

ST Mirren and Dundee expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07ST Mirren
1.74Dundee
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (ST Mirren / Dundee)
0.72 / 1.12
Defence rating (ST Mirren / Dundee)
1.30 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ST Mirren vs Dundee score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 9.3% 9.1% 5.3% 3.4% 1 5.3% 12.3% 9.8% 5.7% 3.7% 2 3.5% 6.0% 5.2% 3.0% 2.0% 3 1.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: ST Mirren goals. Columns: Dundee goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ST Mirren vs Dundee goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ST Mirren vs Dundee

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ST Mirren37%2.69
Draw26%3.82
Dundee37%2.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.80
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (ST Mirren or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Dundee)63%1.59
Handicap -1ST Mirren win by 2+9%11.49
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ST Mirren and Dundee recent form

ST Mirren 1W 0D 5L
Dundee 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

ST Mirren at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dundee away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: ST Mirren at home only, Dundee away only.

Expected lineups

ST Mirren lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Chapman
  2. 3 D. John
  3. 22 M. Fraser
  4. 13 A. Gogić
  5. 47 C. Ramsay
  6. 53 Henry Fieldson
  7. 8 R. Carr
  8. 19 Ismeal Kabia
  9. 88 K. Phillips
  10. 16 L. Thomas
  11. 9 Eseosa Sule

Bench: J. Richardson, L. Donnelly, Louis Jackson, Samu, J. Young, C. Mochrie, F. Taylor, C. McEvoy

Dundee lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 O. Goodman
  2. 12 I. Samuels
  3. 5 O. Bevan
  4. 4 R. Astley
  5. 7 D. Wright
  6. 14 A. Forrest
  7. 48 E. Hamilton
  8. 28 C. Jones
  9. 27 J. Bevan
  10. 21 B. Fink
  11. 11 A. Hay

Bench: B. Halliday, I. Odutayo, M. Akinmboni, R. Finnigan, K. O'Hara, Ž. Bešir, C. Reilly, J. Wright, Alfie Harrison

ST Mirren vs Dundee head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: ST Mirren 3 · draws 2 · Dundee 5.

ST MirrenDrawsDundee
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Dundee1-0ST MirrenScotland Premiership
2026-01-31ST Mirren0-0DundeeScotland Premiership
2025-11-29Dundee3-1ST MirrenScotland Premiership
2025-09-27ST Mirren1-0DundeeScotland Premiership
2025-04-05Dundee2-0ST MirrenPremiership
2024-12-29ST Mirren1-2DundeePremiership
2024-08-31Dundee2-2ST MirrenPremiership
2024-05-04Dundee1-3ST MirrenPremiership
2024-02-07ST Mirren2-0DundeePremiership
2023-11-11Dundee4-0ST MirrenPremiership

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match