Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Celtic vs Celta Vigo

· Celtic Park, Glasgow· Referee Georgi Nikolov Kabakov

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Celtic to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CelticDrawCelta Vigo

Celtic vs Celta Vigo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelticDrawCelta Vigo
Model69%19%12%
Market35%27%38%
Published44%25%31%
Edge+9%-2%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Celtic below our published probability: +8.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.92Now 2.70 -0.22
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celtic2.922.70-0.22
Draw3.483.50+0.02
Celta Vigo2.342.52+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celtic and Celta Vigo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Celtic
0.91Celta Vigo
Total expected goals
3.29
Attack rating (Celtic / Celta Vigo)
1.56 / 0.77
Defence rating (Celtic / Celta Vigo)
1.01 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1 8.0% 8.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 2 10.5% 9.6% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 8.4% 7.6% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 8.7% 8.0% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celtic vs Celta Vigo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celtic44%2.28
Draw25%3.99
Celta Vigo31%3.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.80
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Celtic or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Celta Vigo)56%1.78
Handicap -1Celtic win by 2+47%2.11
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celtic and Celta Vigo recent form

Celtic 3W 0D 3L
Celta Vigo 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celtic at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Celta Vigo away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Celtic at home only, Celta Vigo away only.

Injuries & availability

Celtic absences

  • A. Johnston leg injury
  • A. Trusty inactive
  • C. Carter-Vickers health problems
  • C. Osmand inactive
  • J. van den Berg off the roster
  • Jota off the roster
  • L. Emenalo off the roster
  • S. Mheuka off the roster
  • Yang Hyun-Jun hamstring injury

Celta Vigo absences

  • A. Nunez groin injury
  • B. Iglesias calf injury
  • C. Starfelt muscle injury
  • J. El Abdellaoui knee injury
  • M. Roman knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 S. Johnstone
  2. 63 K. Tierney
  3. 5 L. Scales
  4. 47 D. Murray
  5. 51 Colby Donovan
  6. 22 M. Baur
  7. 42 C. McGregor
  8. 19 C. Osmand
  9. 8 B. Nygren
  10. 23 H. Hassan
  11. 11 C. Durán

Bench: V. Sinisalo, J. Lotomba, K. Høgh, L. McCowan, S. Tounekti, O. Sørensen, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain, S. McArdle, J. Forrest, A. Ralston, J. Haney

Celta Vigo lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 I. Radu
  2. 3 Marcos Alonso
  3. 21 S. Cáceres
  4. 20 Javi Rodríguez
  5. 5 Sergio Carreira
  6. 14 Aleix Febas
  7. 30 H. Burcio
  8. 17 Javi Rueda
  9. 23 Hugo Álvarez
  10. 9 Ferran Jutglà
  11. 10 Iago Aspas

Bench: A. Bayındır, A. Faye, I. Moriba, Pablo Durán, Hugo González, Yoel Lago, W. Swedberg, Javi Galán, C. Driouech, Andrés Antañón, Ángel Arcos, G. Miller

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match