Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 8

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK

· Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul· Referee A. Sen

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Başakşehir to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BaşakşehirDrawGaziantep FK

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBaşakşehirDrawGaziantep FK
Model59%24%17%
Market58%22%20%
Published58%23%19%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.94.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Başakşehir, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.67Now 1.62 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Başakşehir1.671.62-0.05
Draw4.104.17+0.08
Gaziantep FK4.454.75+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Başakşehir
0.94Gaziantep FK
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Başakşehir / Gaziantep FK)
1.09 / 0.76
Defence rating (Başakşehir / Gaziantep FK)
1.02 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 4.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 1 9.9% 11.3% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.5% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 6.8% 6.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 5.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Başakşehir goals. Columns: Gaziantep FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Başakşehir58%1.72
Draw23%4.39
Gaziantep FK19%5.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Başakşehir or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Gaziantep FK)42%2.39
Handicap -1Başakşehir win by 2+36%2.77
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK recent form

Başakşehir 1W 2D 3L
Gaziantep FK 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Başakşehir at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Gaziantep FK away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Başakşehir at home only, Gaziantep FK away only.

Injuries & availability

Başakşehir absences

  • E. Visca injury

Gaziantep FK absences

  • F. Bavuk hamstring injury
  • N. Sangare back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Başakşehir lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Muhammed Şengezer
  2. 38 Saba Kharebashvili
  3. 27 Ousseynou Ba
  4. 23 Emin Bayram
  5. 33 Michał Karbownik
  6. 18 Jakub Kałuziński
  7. 8 Olivier Kemen
  8. 77 Ivan Brnić
  9. 14 Eldor Shomurodov
  10. 70 Andreas Skov Olsen
  11. 17 Umut Bozok

Bench: Onur Ergün, Yusuf Sarı, Edin Višća, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Hamza Güreler, Berkay Özcan, Umut Güneş, Ömer Ali Şahiner, Bertuğ Yıldırım, Deniz Dilmen

Gaziantep FK lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 25 Kacper Tobiasz
  2. 14 Myenty Abena
  3. 21 Abakar Sylla
  4. 4 Arda Kızıldağ
  5. 2 Luis Pérez
  6. 61 Ogün Özçiçek
  7. 10 Kacper Kozłowski
  8. 3 Drissa Camara
  9. 8 Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo
  10. 18 Deian Sorescu
  11. 9 Trivante Stewart

Bench: Efe Sarıkaya, Juninho Bacuna, Karamba Gassama, Serdar Dursun, Sontje Hansen, Kerim Çalhanoğlu, Halil Dervişoğlu, Ataberk Dadakdeniz, Alexandru Maxim, Sabahattin Destici

Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Başakşehir 7 · draws 1 · Gaziantep FK 2.

BaşakşehirDrawsGaziantep FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Gaziantep FK1-2BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2025-12-22Başakşehir5-1Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2025-04-20Başakşehir2-1Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2024-11-23Gaziantep FK3-0BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2024-02-24Gaziantep FK0-2BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2023-10-07Başakşehir2-0Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2023-05-30Başakşehir3-0Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2023-01-05Gaziantep FK1-1BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2022-02-12Başakşehir2-0Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2021-09-22Gaziantep FK1-0BaşakşehirSüper Lig

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match