Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 9

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK

· Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep· Referee M. Dakan

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Gaziantep FK to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gaziantep FKDrawErzurumspor FK

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGaziantep FKDrawErzurumspor FK
Model29%34%37%
Market39%29%32%
Published36%30%33%
Edge-3%+1%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gaziantep FK, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.22Now 2.40 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gaziantep FK2.222.40+0.18
Draw3.033.21+0.18
Erzurumspor FK3.642.92-0.72

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Gaziantep FK
1.07Erzurumspor FK
Total expected goals
1.97
Attack rating (Gaziantep FK / Erzurumspor FK)
0.77 / 0.75
Defence rating (Gaziantep FK / Erzurumspor FK)
1.18 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.2% 13.5% 8.0% 2.8% 1.0% 1 11.2% 14.8% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 5.7% 6.1% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 3 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Gaziantep FK goals. Columns: Erzurumspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gaziantep FK36%2.75
Draw30%3.31
Erzurumspor FK33%3.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.17
Under 2.568%1.46
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.48
No60%1.68
Double chance1X (Gaziantep FK or draw)67%1.50
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Erzurumspor FK)64%1.57
Handicap -1Gaziantep FK win by 2+10%9.56
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK recent form

Gaziantep FK 1W 1D 4L
Erzurumspor FK 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gaziantep FK at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 63% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Erzurumspor FK away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gaziantep FK at home only, Erzurumspor FK away only.

Injuries & availability

Gaziantep FK absences

  • F. Bavuk hamstring injury
  • N. Sangare back injury
  • U. Meleke injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Gaziantep FK lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 25 Kacper Tobiasz
  2. 23 Kerim Çalhanoğlu
  3. 14 Myenty Abena
  4. 21 Abakar Sylla
  5. 2 Luis Pérez
  6. 3 Drissa Camara
  7. 10 Kacper Kozłowski
  8. 44 Alexandru Maxim
  9. 18 Deian Sorescu
  10. 7 Juninho Bacuna
  11. 9 Trivante Stewart

Bench: Arda Kızıldağ, Efe Sarıkaya, Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo, Mirza Cihan, Karamba Gassama, Serdar Dursun, Halil Dervişoğlu, Ataberk Dadakdeniz, Sabahattin Destici, Mervan Müjdeci

Erzurumspor FK lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran
  2. 15 Guram Giorbelidze
  3. 18 Nihad Mujakić
  4. 22 Mustafa Yumlu
  5. 4 Amar Gerxhaliu
  6. 53 Orhan Ovacıklı
  7. 65 Martín Rodríguez
  8. 42 Elisha Owusu
  9. 6 Brandon Baiye
  10. 20 Miguel Cardoso
  11. 10 Eren Tozlu

Bench: Festy Ebosele, Yakup Kırtay, Sefa Akgün, Gyrano Kerk, Ibrahim Diabaté, Cengizhan Bayrak, Matija Orbanić, Lawrence Agyekum, Nariman Akhundzade, Mustafa Fettahoglu

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Gaziantep FK 0 · draws 3 · Erzurumspor FK 2.

Gaziantep FKDrawsErzurumspor FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-04-25Gaziantep FK2-3Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
2021-01-02Erzurumspor FK1-1Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
2018-05-19Gaziantep FK0-0Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2018-04-07Erzurumspor FK2-1Gaziantep FK1. Lig
2017-11-26Gaziantep FK2-2Erzurumspor FK1. Lig

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match