Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor: model vs market
| Source | Fenerbahçe | Draw | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Published | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.15.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.33 | 1.27 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 5.58 | +0.53 |
| Alanyaspor | 8.25 | 9.55 | +1.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Fenerbahçe / Alanyaspor)
- 1.39 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Fenerbahçe / Alanyaspor)
- 0.99 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fenerbahçe goals. Columns: Alanyaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fenerbahçe | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Alanyaspor | 14% | 7.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fenerbahçe or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Alanyaspor) | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fenerbahçe win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor recent form
Fenerbahçe
2W 2D 2L
Alanyaspor
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fenerbahçe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 4.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alanyaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fenerbahçe at home only, Alanyaspor away only.
Injuries & availability
Fenerbahçe absences
-
J. Oosterwolde
achilles tendon injury
- M. Muldur knee injury
Alanyaspor absences
-
Maestro
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Fenerbahçe lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 Ederson
- 22 Levent Mercan
- 15 Nathan Aké
- 37 Milan Škriniar
- 27 Nélson Semedo
- 6 Mattéo Guendouzi
- 91 N'Golo Kanté
- 70 Oğuz Aydın
- 17 İrfan Can Kahveci
- 11 Mason Greenwood
- 9 Romelu Lukaku
Bench: Archie Brown, İsmail Yüksek, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Yiğit Efe Demir, Vedat Muriqi, Kojo Peprah Oppong, Bartuğ Elmaz, Mert Günok, Dorgeles Nene
Alanyaspor lineup · 3-4-3
- 48 Paulo Victor
- 20 Fatih Aksoy
- 5 Fidan Aliti
- 3 Nuno Lima
- 11 Ruan Pereira Duarte
- 55 Baran Ali Gezek
- 42 Gaius Makouta
- 94 Florent Hadergjonaj
- 7 Ibrahim Kaya
- 17 Arda Usluoğlu
- 16 Hwang Ui-Jo
Bench: Bedirhan Özyurt, Enes Keskin, Omar Ben Ali, Ianis Hagi, Meschak Elia, Emre Demir, Mert Furkan Bayram, İzzet Çelik, Maestro, Yusuf Özdemir
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fenerbahçe 8 · draws 2 · Alanyaspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Alanyaspor | 2-3 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-17 | Fenerbahçe | 2-2 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-02-09 | Alanyaspor | 0-2 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2024-08-30 | Fenerbahçe | 3-0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2024-02-11 | Fenerbahçe | 2-2 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2023-09-24 | Alanyaspor | 0-1 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2023-03-19 | Alanyaspor | 1-3 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2022-12-07 | Alanyaspor | 2-4 | Fenerbahçe | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-09-18 | Fenerbahçe | 5-0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2022-03-13 | Alanyaspor | 2-5 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Çorum FK vs Rizespor — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor 2026-10-17
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray 2026-10-17
- Amed v Konyaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Kocaelispor vs Göztepe 2026-10-18
- Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK — match page 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Fenerbahçe, previous: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: odds and pick
- Fenerbahçe, next: Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha, 2026-10-20
- Alanyaspor, previous: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK: odds and pick
- Alanyaspor, next: Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor analysis