Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 9

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir

· Tupras Stadium, Istanbul· Referee U. Ozturk

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Beşiktaş to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BeşiktaşDrawBaşakşehir

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBeşiktaşDrawBaşakşehir
Model54%23%23%
Market69%18%13%
Published66%19%15%
Edge-4%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.34.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.35Now 1.35 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Beşiktaş1.351.35+0.00
Draw5.055.20+0.15
Başakşehir7.327.46+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Beşiktaş and Başakşehir expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.11Beşiktaş
1.34Başakşehir
Total expected goals
3.46
Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Başakşehir)
1.40 / 1.10
Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Başakşehir)
1.01 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 3.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1 5.8% 9.9% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 2 7.0% 9.5% 6.4% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.0% 6.7% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 4.3% 5.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.8%

Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Başakşehir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Beşiktaş66%1.52
Draw19%5.21
Başakşehir15%6.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.04
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.93
Double chance1X (Beşiktaş or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Başakşehir)34%2.91
Handicap -1Beşiktaş win by 2+33%3.01
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Beşiktaş and Başakşehir recent form

Beşiktaş 3W 1D 2L
Başakşehir 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beşiktaş at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Başakşehir away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Beşiktaş at home only, Başakşehir away only.

Injuries & availability

Beşiktaş absences

  • F. Miretti injury
  • M. Rashica muscle injury
  • O. Kokcu foot injury

Başakşehir absences

  • C. Operi inactive
  • J. Opoku inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Beşiktaş lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Alexander Nübel
  2. 33 Rıdvan Yılmaz
  3. 53 Emirhan Topçu
  4. 12 Emmanuel Agbadou
  5. 62 Amir Murillo
  6. 4 Wilfred Ndidi
  7. 19 Leandro Trossard
  8. 6 Salih Özcan
  9. 15 Junior Olaitan
  10. 18 Václav Černý
  11. 28 Dušan Vlahović

Bench: Kartal Kayra Yılmaz, Hyeon-gyu Oh, Kassoum Ouattara, Ernest Poku, Taylan Bulut, İlhan Fakılı, Tiago Djaló, Yasin Özcan, Doğan Alemdar, Semih Kılıçsoy

Başakşehir lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Muhammed Şengezer
  2. 38 Saba Kharebashvili
  3. 27 Ousseynou Ba
  4. 23 Emin Bayram
  5. 33 Michał Karbownik
  6. 20 Umut Güneş
  7. 8 Olivier Kemen
  8. 7 Yusuf Sarı
  9. 14 Eldor Shomurodov
  10. 70 Andreas Skov Olsen
  11. 17 Umut Bozok

Bench: Onur Bulut, Davie Selke, Edin Višća, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Hamza Güreler, Jakub Kałuziński, Ömer Ali Şahiner, Ivan Brnić, Bertuğ Yıldırım, Deniz Dilmen

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Beşiktaş 4 · draws 3 · Başakşehir 3.

BeşiktaşDrawsBaşakşehir
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-15Başakşehir2-3BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2025-09-13Beşiktaş2-1BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2025-04-12Beşiktaş0-2BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2024-11-10Başakşehir0-0BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2024-04-04Başakşehir1-1BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2023-11-12Beşiktaş1-0BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2023-03-12Başakşehir0-2BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2022-09-12Beşiktaş0-1BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2022-03-07Beşiktaş2-2BaşakşehirSüper Lig
2021-10-15Başakşehir3-2BeşiktaşSüper Lig

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match