Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 8

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe

· Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit· Referee A. Akarsu

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Göztepe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KocaelisporDrawGöztepe

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKocaelisporDrawGöztepe
Model38%28%34%
Market33%28%39%
Published34%28%38%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Göztepe, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.88Now 2.40 -0.48
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kocaelispor2.672.84+0.17
Draw3.243.26+0.02
Göztepe2.882.40-0.48

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kocaelispor and Göztepe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Kocaelispor
1.31Göztepe
Total expected goals
2.71
Attack rating (Kocaelispor / Göztepe)
0.74 / 1.34
Defence rating (Kocaelispor / Göztepe)
0.80 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 7.5% 5.7% 2.5% 1.1% 1 8.1% 13.4% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.6% 8.6% 5.6% 2.4% 1.1% 3 3.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Kocaelispor goals. Columns: Göztepe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kocaelispor34%2.94
Draw28%3.52
Göztepe38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Kocaelispor or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Göztepe)66%1.52
Handicap -1Göztepe win by 2+15%6.51
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kocaelispor and Göztepe recent form

Kocaelispor 4W 0D 2L
Göztepe 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kocaelispor at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Göztepe away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Kocaelispor at home only, Göztepe away only.

Injuries & availability

Kocaelispor absences

  • A. Dijksteel muscle injury
  • A. Jovanovic knee injury
  • B. Petkovic hamstring injury
  • M. Haidara muscle injury
  • M. Maglica injury
  • T. Zoukrou muscle injury

Göztepe absences

  • F. Bayir inactive
  • I. Sabra ankle injury
  • L. Gugeshashvili inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Kocaelispor 2 · draws 2 · Göztepe 0.

KocaelisporDrawsGöztepe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Kocaelispor1-1GöztepeSüper Lig
2025-11-23Göztepe0-0KocaelisporSüper Lig
2024-04-03Kocaelispor3-2Göztepe1. Lig
2023-11-04Göztepe0-1Kocaelispor1. Lig

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match