Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 8

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

· Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul· Referee F. Tokail

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Kasımpaşa to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KasımpaşaDrawSamsunspor

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKasımpaşaDrawSamsunspor
Model54%25%22%
Market40%28%32%
Published44%27%29%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kasımpaşa below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.54Now 2.31 -0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kasımpaşa2.542.31-0.23
Draw3.403.31-0.09
Samsunspor2.632.95+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Kasımpaşa
1.12Samsunspor
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Kasımpaşa / Samsunspor)
0.92 / 0.92
Defence rating (Kasımpaşa / Samsunspor)
1.01 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 4.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 1 8.3% 11.6% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 2 8.8% 9.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3 5.4% 6.1% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.9% 4.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Kasımpaşa goals. Columns: Samsunspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kasımpaşa44%2.29
Draw27%3.66
Samsunspor29%3.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (Kasımpaşa or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Samsunspor)56%1.77
Handicap -1Kasımpaşa win by 2+31%3.19
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor recent form

Kasımpaşa 2W 3D 1L
Samsunspor 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kasımpaşa at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Samsunspor away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kasımpaşa at home only, Samsunspor away only.

Injuries & availability

Kasımpaşa absences

  • A. Karapo injury
  • K. Corekci achilles tendon injury
  • M. Ouanes muscle injury

Samsunspor absences

  • C. Yuksel injury
  • J. Assoumou muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Kasımpaşa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Andreas Gianniotis
  2. 45 Ayberk Karapo
  3. 27 Matei Ilie
  4. 4 Adem Arous
  5. 2 Cláudio Winck
  6. 26 Kerem Demirbay
  7. 16 Andri Fannar Baldursson
  8. 7 Ali Yavuz Kol
  9. 51 Elson Mendes
  10. 17 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
  11. 9 Adrian Benedyczak

Bench: Atakan Mujde, Haris Hajradinović, Thiemoko Diarra, Kevin Mouanga, Ömer Bayram, Marcus Rafferty, Ali Emre Yanar, Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı, Güven Yalçın, Emirhan Boz

Samsunspor lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Okan Kocuk
  2. 17 Logi Tomasson
  3. 34 Gabriele Guarino
  4. 22 Yunus Emre Çift
  5. 2 Josafat Mendes
  6. 4 Elliot Watt
  7. 19 Oskar Øhlenschlaeger
  8. 11 Emre Kılınç
  9. 20 Yalçın Kayan
  10. 10 Tanguy Coulibaly
  11. 18 Mohamed Bayo

Bench: Igor Drapiński, Elayis Tavsan, Samed Onur, Strahinja Eraković, Enes Albak, Bilal Bayazit, Haluk Mustafa Tan, Saikuba Jarju, Antoine Sekongo, Afonso Sousa

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3 · draws 1 · Samsunspor 3.

KasımpaşaDrawsSamsunspor
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Kasımpaşa3-0SamsunsporFriendlies Clubs
2026-01-30Kasımpaşa0-1SamsunsporSüper Lig
2025-09-17Samsunspor0-0KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2025-03-29Samsunspor0-2KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2024-10-26Kasımpaşa1-4SamsunsporSüper Lig
2024-04-27Kasımpaşa1-0SamsunsporSüper Lig
2023-12-09Samsunspor4-2KasımpaşaSüper Lig

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match