Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 8

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor

· Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum· Referee E. Mertoglu

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Erzurumspor FK to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Erzurumspor FKDrawEyüpspor

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceErzurumspor FKDrawEyüpspor
Model60%26%15%
Market60%25%15%
Published60%25%15%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Erzurumspor FK, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.62Now 1.56 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Erzurumspor FK1.621.56-0.06
Draw3.753.81+0.06
Eyüpspor5.426.08+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Erzurumspor FK
0.76Eyüpspor
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Erzurumspor FK / Eyüpspor)
0.69 / 0.73
Defence rating (Erzurumspor FK / Eyüpspor)
0.85 / 1.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 5.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1 13.3% 12.0% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.4% 9.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 3 7.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 4.6% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Erzurumspor FK goals. Columns: Eyüpspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Erzurumspor FK60%1.67
Draw25%4.02
Eyüpspor15%6.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.21
Under 2.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.24
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (Erzurumspor FK or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Eyüpspor)40%2.49
Handicap -1Erzurumspor FK win by 2+34%2.90
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor recent form

Erzurumspor FK 2W 2D 2L
Eyüpspor 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Erzurumspor FK at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Eyüpspor away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK at home only, Eyüpspor away only.

Injuries & availability

Erzurumspor FK absences

  • G. Kerk injury

Eyüpspor absences

  • A. Abdullahi suspended
  • A. Sabiri muscle injury
  • J. El Yamiq inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Erzurumspor FK lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran
  2. 15 Guram Giorbelidze
  3. 18 Nihad Mujakić
  4. 22 Mustafa Yumlu
  5. 4 Amar Gerxhaliu
  6. 53 Orhan Ovacıklı
  7. 65 Martín Rodríguez
  8. 42 Elisha Owusu
  9. 6 Brandon Baiye
  10. 20 Miguel Cardoso
  11. 10 Eren Tozlu

Bench: Yakup Kırtay, Sefa Akgün, Gyrano Kerk, Ibrahim Diabaté, Emirhan Acar, Cengizhan Bayrak, Matija Orbanić, Lawrence Agyekum, Nariman Akhundzade, Mustafa Fettahoglu

Eyüpspor lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Emre Bilgin
  2. 21 Simone Giordano
  3. 4 Seyfettin Anıl Yaşar
  4. 33 Zak Jules
  5. 5 Jawad El Yamiq
  6. 77 Konrad Michalak
  7. 15 Charles-Andre Raux Yao
  8. 28 Taşkın Ilter
  9. 88 Chandrel Massanga
  10. 9 Yusuf Barası
  11. 98 Bilal Boutobba

Bench: Talha Ülvan, David Costa, Abdelhamid Sabiri, Lenny Pintor, Hamza Akman, Yiğit Demir, Horațiu Moldovan, Berhan Satli, Musa Karakas, Mete Demir

Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Erzurumspor FK 1 · draws 2 · Eyüpspor 3.

Erzurumspor FKDrawsEyüpspor
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-05-11Erzurumspor FK0-4Eyüpspor1. Lig
2023-12-25Eyüpspor3-0Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2023-04-03Eyüpspor1-1Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2022-10-30Erzurumspor FK0-1Eyüpspor1. Lig
2022-02-17Erzurumspor FK1-1Eyüpspor1. Lig
2021-09-18Eyüpspor0-1Erzurumspor FK1. Lig

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match