Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market
| Source | Eyüpspor | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 58% |
| Published | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | 4.60 | 5.50 | +0.90 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.90 | +0.22 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.75 | 1.62 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Eyüpspor / Kasımpaşa)
- 0.68 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Eyüpspor / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.67 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eyüpspor goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eyüpspor | 17% | 6.06 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Kasımpaşa | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eyüpspor or draw) | 40% | 2.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa recent form
Eyüpspor
1W 0D 5L
Kasımpaşa
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eyüpspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 8 matches.
Kasımpaşa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eyüpspor at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.
Injuries & availability
Eyüpspor absences
-
A. Abdullahi
suspended
Kasımpaşa absences
- G. Frimpong injury
-
K. Corekci
achilles tendon injury
-
M. Ouanes
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Eyüpspor lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Emre Bilgin
- 21 Simone Giordano
- 33 Zak Jules
- 5 Jawad El Yamiq
- 7 Talha Ülvan
- 88 Chandrel Massanga
- 77 Konrad Michalak
- 28 Taşkın Ilter
- 8 David Costa
- 11 Lenny Pintor
- 9 Yusuf Barası
Bench: Arda Yavuz, Seyfettin Anıl Yaşar, Abdelhamid Sabiri, Charles-Andre Raux Yao, Hamza Akman, Horațiu Moldovan, Berhan Satli, Musa Karakas, Mete Demir, Bilal Boutobba
Kasımpaşa lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Andreas Gianniotis
- 45 Ayberk Karapo
- 27 Matei Ilie
- 4 Adem Arous
- 2 Cláudio Winck
- 26 Kerem Demirbay
- 51 Elson Mendes
- 7 Ali Yavuz Kol
- 10 Haris Hajradinović
- 17 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
- 9 Adrian Benedyczak
Bench: Jakob Jessen, Atakan Mujde, Thiemoko Diarra, Andri Fannar Baldursson, Ömer Bayram, Marcus Rafferty, Ali Emre Yanar, Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı, Güven Yalçın, Emirhan Boz
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eyüpspor 1 · draws 0 · Kasımpaşa 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Kasımpaşa | 1-0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-20 | Eyüpspor | 2-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-05-10 | Eyüpspor | 0-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2024-12-13 | Kasımpaşa | 2-0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
- Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Eyüpspor, previous: Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor analysis
- Eyüpspor, next: Amed v Eyüpspor analysis
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor, 2026-10-18
- Kasımpaşa, next: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş prediction