Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 9

Samsunspor vs Amed

· Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun· Referee K. Saglam

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Amed to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SamsunsporDrawAmed

Samsunspor vs Amed: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSamsunsporDrawAmed
Model15%18%68%
Market31%27%42%
Published27%25%48%
Edge-4%-2%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Amed below our published probability: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Samsunspor vs Amed odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Amed, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.43Now 2.25 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Samsunspor2.703.02+0.32
Draw3.423.50+0.08
Amed2.432.25-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Samsunspor and Amed expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Samsunspor
2.72Amed
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (Samsunspor / Amed)
0.89 / 1.48
Defence rating (Samsunspor / Amed)
1.51 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Samsunspor vs Amed score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 4.5% 7.0% 6.3% 8.3% 1 1.7% 7.1% 8.7% 7.9% 10.4% 2 1.5% 4.0% 5.4% 4.9% 6.5% 3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.7% 4+ 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1%

Rows: Samsunspor goals. Columns: Amed goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Samsunspor vs Amed goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Samsunspor vs Amed

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Samsunspor27%3.69
Draw25%4.06
Amed48%2.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.11
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (Samsunspor or draw)52%1.93
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Amed)73%1.37
Handicap -1Amed win by 2+48%2.08
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Samsunspor and Amed recent form

Samsunspor 0W 0D 6L
Amed 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Samsunspor at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Amed away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Samsunspor at home only, Amed away only.

Injuries & availability

Samsunspor absences

  • C. Yuksel injury
  • F. Kaya inactive
  • J. Assoumou muscle injury

Amed absences

  • L. Dellova muscle injury
  • M. Yildirim muscle injury
  • Y. Sor muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Samsunspor lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Bilal Bayazit
  2. 17 Logi Tomasson
  3. 3 Igor Drapiński
  4. 16 Strahinja Eraković
  5. 34 Gabriele Guarino
  6. 4 Elliot Watt
  7. 2 Josafat Mendes
  8. 42 Antoine Sekongo
  9. 77 Afonso Sousa
  10. 10 Tanguy Coulibaly
  11. 18 Mohamed Bayo

Bench: Okan Kocuk, Elayis Tavsan, Samed Onur, Jaures Assoumou, Oskar Øhlenschlaeger, Yalçın Kayan, Yunus Emre Çift, Enes Albak, Haluk Mustafa Tan, Saikuba Jarju

Amed lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 Alban Lafont
  2. 17 Umut Meraş
  3. 4 David Robert Bates
  4. 5 Lumbardh Dellova
  5. 7 Ermal Krasniqi
  6. 8 Furkan Soyalp
  7. 22 Rayan Raveloson
  8. 74 Mohamed Khalil
  9. 91 Dia Saba
  10. 10 Samuel Ballet
  11. 99 Gift Orban

Bench: Miraç Acer, Cem Üstündag, Gökhan Gül, Mehmet Yeşil, Burak Bozan, Amadou Cissé, Mbaye Diagne, Kahraman Demirtaş, Ali Turap Bülbül, Rayan Lutin

Samsunspor vs Amed head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Samsunspor 2 · draws 1 · Amed 1.

SamsunsporDrawsAmed
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-02-19Samsunspor3-0Amed2. Lig
2019-10-09Amed0-0Samsunspor2. Lig
2019-01-20Amed3-2Samsunspor2. Lig
2018-09-02Samsunspor1-0Amed2. Lig

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match