Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor: model vs market
| Source | Alanyaspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Published | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alanyaspor, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 2.07 | 2.00 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.25 | -0.03 |
| Kocaelispor | 4.12 | 4.00 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Alanyaspor / Kocaelispor)
- 0.81 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Alanyaspor / Kocaelispor)
- 0.94 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alanyaspor goals. Columns: Kocaelispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Kocaelispor | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alanyaspor or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Kocaelispor) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win by 2+ | 14% | 7.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor recent form
Alanyaspor
2W 2D 2L
Kocaelispor
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alanyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kocaelispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alanyaspor at home only, Kocaelispor away only.
Injuries & availability
Alanyaspor absences
- Bikoue inactive
- P. Fernandes injury
Kocaelispor absences
-
A. Jovanovic
coach's decision
-
B. Petkovic
hamstring injury
- M. Haidara muscle injury
- T. Zoukrou muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Alanyaspor lineup · 3-4-3
- 48 Paulo Victor
- 20 Fatih Aksoy
- 5 Fidan Aliti
- 3 Nuno Lima
- 11 Ruan Pereira Duarte
- 55 Baran Ali Gezek
- 42 Gaius Makouta
- 94 Florent Hadergjonaj
- 7 Ibrahim Kaya
- 17 Arda Usluoğlu
- 10 Ianis Hagi
Bench: Bedirhan Özyurt, Enes Keskin, Omar Ben Ali, Meschak Elia, Hwang Ui-Jo, Iván Cédric, Mert Furkan Bayram, İzzet Çelik, Maestro, Yusuf Özdemir
Kocaelispor lineup · 4-3-3
- 83 Serhat Öztaşdelen
- 22 Uğur Kaan Yıldız
- 2 Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel
- 5 Emir Ortakaya
- 99 Rigoberto Rivas
- 10 Berkan Kutlu
- 14 Show
- 20 Mahamadou Susoho
- 32 Makana Baku
- 97 Florian Ayé
- 11 Gonçalo Sousa
Bench: Muharrem Cinan, Matej Maglica, Dan Agyei, Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen, Onurcan Piri, Metehan Altunbaş, Ege Bilim, Onur Öztonga, Tayfur Bingöl
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alanyaspor 2 · draws 0 · Kocaelispor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Alanyaspor | 5-0 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-25 | Kocaelispor | 2-0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2023-12-05 | Alanyaspor | 1-0 | Kocaelispor | Türkiye Kupası |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
- Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Alanyaspor, previous: Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor analysis
- Alanyaspor, next: Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor analysis
- Kocaelispor, previous: Kocaelispor – Göztepe, 2026-10-18
- Kocaelispor, next: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor: odds and pick