Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Aston Villa vs Viking

· Villa Park, Birmingham· Referee Sebastian Gishamer

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Aston Villa to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Aston VillaDrawViking

Aston Villa vs Viking: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAston VillaDrawViking
Model47%22%31%
Market77%15%9%
Published69%16%14%
Edge-7%+2%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.77.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aston Villa vs Viking odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.24Now 1.25 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aston Villa1.241.25+0.01
Draw6.006.55+0.55
Viking12.2511.00-1.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aston Villa and Viking expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.20Aston Villa
1.77Viking
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (Aston Villa / Viking)
1.38 / 1.56
Defence rating (Aston Villa / Viking)
0.87 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aston Villa vs Viking score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1 3.4% 8.1% 6.5% 3.8% 2.5% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.2% 2.8% 3 3.3% 5.9% 5.3% 3.1% 2.1% 4+ 3.1% 5.5% 4.8% 2.9% 1.9%

Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Viking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Viking goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aston Villa vs Viking

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aston Villa69%1.44
Draw16%6.09
Viking14%7.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.15
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.34
No25%3.94
Double chance1X (Aston Villa or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)84%1.20
X2 (draw or Viking)31%3.26
Handicap -1Aston Villa win by 2+29%3.50
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aston Villa and Viking recent form

Aston Villa 4W 1D 1L
Viking 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aston Villa at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
6.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Viking away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Viking away only.

Injuries & availability

Aston Villa absences

  • A. Onana knee injury
  • A. Wan-Bissaka muscle injury
  • B. Madjo off the roster
  • J. Manzambi calf injury
  • M. Cisse off the roster
  • M. Ruggeri muscle injury

Viking absences

  • A. Baertelsen foot injury
  • H. Falchener knee injury
  • K. Frimpong off the roster
  • K. Haugen leg injury
  • M. Roseth knee injury
  • N. D'Agostino leg injury
  • S. Bjorshol knee injury
  • V. Berisha thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Aston Villa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Suzuki
  2. 5 T. Mings
  3. 14 Pau Torres
  4. 3 V. Lindelöf
  5. 35 João Gomes
  6. 6 R. Barkley
  7. 7 J. McGinn
  8. 19 I. Mbaye
  9. 10 E. Buendía
  10. 47 Alysson Edward
  11. 11 N. Jackson

Bench: M. Cash, T. Harwood-Bellis, B. Kamara, A. Garnacho, T. Abraham, I. Maatsen, L. Bogarde, L. Goretzka, M. Bizot, J. Wright, George Hemmings

Viking lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 A. Østbø
  2. 5 H. Heggheim
  3. 6 G. Stensness
  4. 27 J. Daland
  5. 2 H. Haugen
  6. 29 T. Moi
  7. 8 J. Bell
  8. 7 K. Askildsen
  9. 10 Z. Tripić
  10. 22 E. Botheim
  11. 20 P. Christiansen

Bench: V. Vevatne, R. Postema, H. Bjørdal, E. Bassey, A. Cosic, N. Fuglestad, Vetle Auklend, H. Falchener, S. Kvia-Egeskog, K. Haugen, Ľ. Belko, J. Hansen

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

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