Lille 2-4 Galatasaray: Prediction vs Result 21.10.26

Lille vs Galatasaray: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lille	Draw	Galatasaray
Model	49%	25%	26%
Market	43%	26%	31%
Published	45%	26%	30%
Edge	+1%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.32.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lille vs Galatasaray odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lille, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.17Now 2.22 +0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lille	2.17	2.22	+0.05
Draw	3.60	3.67	+0.07
Galatasaray	3.10	3.10	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lille and Galatasaray expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Lille

1.32Galatasaray

Total expected goals: 3.18
Attack rating (Lille / Galatasaray): 0.89 / 1.06
Defence rating (Lille / Galatasaray): 0.95 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lille vs Galatasaray score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 4.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 1 6.7% 11.3% 6.8% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 3.1% 4.2% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Galatasaray goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lille vs Galatasaray goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lille vs Galatasaray

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lille	45%	2.24
	Draw	26%	3.89
	Galatasaray	30%	3.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.63
	Under 2.5	38%	2.60
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.69
Double chance	1X (Lille or draw)	70%	1.42
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Galatasaray)	55%	1.80
Handicap -1	Lille win by 2+	28%	3.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—