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Primeira Liga · Matchday 11

Sporting CP vs Moreirense

TipsterGrid prediction Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sporting CPDrawMoreirense
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.95.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sporting CP is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Sporting CP1.19 Draw9.30 Moreirense18.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.19: -8.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Sporting CP vs Moreirense preview

Sporting CP has a strong 77% probability of winning against Moreirense, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 10%. The expected goals for Sporting CP are 2.16, compared to Moreirense's 0.95. This indicates a significant offensive advantage for Sporting CP.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction. Moreirense's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could pose a threat to Sporting CP's dominance. While Sporting CP has won the last 2 head-to-head encounters, the potential for an unexpected outcome remains.

Sporting CP vs Moreirense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSporting CPDrawMoreirense
Model64%21%15%
Market82%12%7%
Published77%14%9%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.19, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sporting CP vs Moreirense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.18Now 1.15 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sporting CP1.181.15-0.03
Draw7.507.85+0.35
Moreirense13.5014.43+0.93

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sporting CP and Moreirense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.16Sporting CP
0.95Moreirense
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Sporting CP / Moreirense)
1.36 / 0.94
Defence rating (Sporting CP / Moreirense)
0.83 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sporting CP vs Moreirense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1 8.7% 10.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.4% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 7.5% 7.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 6.6% 6.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Sporting CP goals. Columns: Moreirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sporting CP vs Moreirense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sporting CP77%1.30
Draw14%6.99
Moreirense9%11.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Sporting CP or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)86%1.17
X2 (draw or Moreirense)23%4.38
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Sporting CP and Moreirense recent form

Sporting CP 4W 0D 2L
Moreirense 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sporting CP at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Moreirense away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting CP at home only, Moreirense away only.

Sporting CP vs Moreirense head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Sporting CP 2 · draws 0 · Moreirense 0.

Sporting CPDrawsMoreirense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Moreirense0-3Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2025-09-22Sporting CP3-0MoreirensePrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Sporting CP to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Sporting CP
Our pick: Sporting CP to win 18+ Bet Now