Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Atalanta vs Pafos

· New Balance Arena, Bergamo· Referee A. Ladeback

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Atalanta to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AtalantaDrawPafos

Atalanta vs Pafos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtalantaDrawPafos
Model28%28%44%
Market72%18%10%
Published61%20%19%
Edge-11%+3%+8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atalanta vs Pafos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.44Now 1.31 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atalanta1.441.31-0.14
Draw4.335.25+0.92
Pafos6.339.00+2.67

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atalanta and Pafos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Atalanta
1.47Pafos
Total expected goals
2.60
Attack rating (Atalanta / Pafos)
0.87 / 1.09
Defence rating (Atalanta / Pafos)
1.14 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atalanta vs Pafos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 9.6% 8.0% 3.9% 2.0% 1 7.1% 13.6% 9.1% 4.4% 2.3% 2 4.7% 7.0% 5.1% 2.5% 1.3% 3 1.8% 2.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Pafos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atalanta vs Pafos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atalanta vs Pafos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atalanta61%1.64
Draw20%4.88
Pafos19%5.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.07
Under 2.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.15
Double chance1X (Atalanta or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or Pafos)39%2.55
Handicap -1Atalanta win by 2+12%8.64
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atalanta and Pafos recent form

Atalanta 3W 0D 3L
Pafos 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atalanta at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Pafos away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Pafos away only.

Expected lineups

Atalanta lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 29 Marco Carnesecchi
  2. 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi
  3. 23 Sead Kolašinac
  4. 31 Thomas Kristensen
  5. 77 Davide Zappacosta
  6. 70 Gianluca Gaetano
  7. 8 Mario Pašalić
  8. 59 Nicola Zalewski
  9. 18 Giacomo Raspadori
  10. 99 Eljif Elmas
  11. 9 Gianluca Scamacca

Bench: Lazar Samardžić, Jonathan Rowe, Éderson, Charles De Ketelaere, Relja Obrić, Javison Idele, Mattia Sonzogni, Marco Sportiello, Nikola Krstović

Pafos lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 Radosław Majecki
  2. 14 Nikolas Ioannou
  3. 4 David Luiz
  4. 3 Samy Mmaee
  5. 7 Bruno
  6. 8 Domingos Quina
  7. 26 Ivan Šunjić
  8. 88 Pêpê
  9. 20 Biel
  10. 18 Lelê
  11. 30 Vlad Dragomir

Bench: Guga, Ken Sema, Anderson Silva, Georgios Michael, Alexandre Brito, Christos Evzonas, Melinos Kais, Michalis Papastylianou, Kosmas Ioannou, João Correia, Petros Petrou

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