Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC: model vs market
| Source | Brann | Draw | Lincoln Red Imps FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Published | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Edge | -6% | +3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brann, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 1.15 | 1.14 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 7.55 | 8.50 | +0.95 |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 15.27 | 17.00 | +1.73 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brann and Lincoln Red Imps FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Brann / Lincoln Red Imps FC)
- 1.09 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Brann / Lincoln Red Imps FC)
- 0.95 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brann goals. Columns: Lincoln Red Imps FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brann | 77% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.99 | |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 8% | 12.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brann or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC) | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brann win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brann and Lincoln Red Imps FC recent form
Brann
2W 1D 3L
Lincoln Red Imps FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brann at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lincoln Red Imps FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Brann at home only, Lincoln Red Imps FC away only.
Expected lineups
Brann lineup · 4-3-3
- 12 Simen Vidtun Nilsen
- 17 Joachim Soltvedt
- 21 Neraysho Kasanwirjo
- 3 Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
- 23 Thore Pedersen
- 19 Eggert Aron Guðmundsson
- 18 Jacob Lungi Sørensen
- 10 Kristall Máni Ingason
- 9 Niklas Castro
- 22 Sævar Atli Magnússon
- 25 Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Bench: Mathias Dyngeland, Leo Cornic, Bård Finne, Jonas Torsvik, Kristian Eriksen, Vetle Dragsnes, Noah Jean Holm, Håkon Melås Hellesøy, Julian Lægreid, Andreas Wilhelmsen, Brage Berg Haugen
Lincoln Red Imps FC lineup · 4-1-3-2
- 13 Jaylan Hankins
- 21 Nano
- 3 Christian Rutjens
- 66 Julliani Eersteling
- 23 Joe
- 8 Mandi
- 22 Graeme Torrilla
- 9 Kike Gómez
- 11 Alvaro Romero
Bench: Nauzet Garcia, Ethan Jolley, Nico Pinto, Bernardo Lopes, Lee Casciaro, Álex Mula, Yussef Flalhi Idrissi, Ethan Britto, Mark Hamm, Facundo Alvarez, Manuel Toledano
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
- FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page 2026-10-15
- HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — match page 2026-10-15
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka 2026-10-15
- Gent vs Aarhus — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- CSKA Sofia v Monaco — match page 2026-10-15
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-15
- Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Brann, next: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction
- Lincoln Red Imps FC, next: Lincoln Red Imps FC – Twente, 2026-10-22