Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente

· Europa Point Stadium, Gibraltar· Referee M. Marcenaro

Full time1 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Twente to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lincoln Red Imps FCDrawTwente

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLincoln Red Imps FCDrawTwente
Model25%27%47%
Market7%14%79%
Published12%17%71%
Edge+4%+3%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.21Now 1.19 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lincoln Red Imps FC12.2513.00+0.75
Draw6.507.00+0.50
Twente1.211.19-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lincoln Red Imps FC and Twente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Lincoln Red Imps FC
1.60Twente
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Lincoln Red Imps FC / Twente)
0.80 / 1.28
Defence rating (Lincoln Red Imps FC / Twente)
1.05 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 9.7% 8.7% 4.6% 2.6% 1 6.2% 13.0% 9.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2 4.0% 6.5% 5.2% 2.8% 1.6% 3 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 4+ 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Lincoln Red Imps FC goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lincoln Red Imps FC12%8.51
Draw17%5.89
Twente71%1.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.99
Under 2.550%2.01
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw)29%3.48
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Twente)88%1.13
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+26%3.90
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lincoln Red Imps FC and Twente recent form

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1W 2D 3L
Twente 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lincoln Red Imps FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Twente away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln Red Imps FC at home only, Twente away only.

Expected lineups

Lincoln Red Imps FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Jaylan Hankins
  2. 21 Nano
  3. 3 Christian Rutjens
  4. 6 Bernardo Lopes
  5. 66 Julliani Eersteling
  6. 10 Álex Mula
  7. 8 Mandi
  8. 22 Graeme Torrilla
  9. 19 Yussef Flalhi Idrissi
  10. 11 Alvaro Romero
  11. 9 Kike Gómez

Bench: Nauzet Garcia, Ethan Jolley, Nico Pinto, Lee Casciaro, Toni García, Ethan Britto, Joe, Mark Hamm, Facundo Alvarez, Manuel Toledano

Twente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Joël Drommel
  2. 29 Aske Adelgaard
  3. 4 Ruud Nijstad
  4. 3 Robin Pröpper
  5. 28 Bart van Rooij
  6. 20 Thomas Van den Belt
  7. 6 Ramiz Zerrouki
  8. 7 Marko Pjaca
  9. 10 Younes Taha
  10. 11 Daan Rots
  11. 9 Wout Weghorst

Bench: Michał Rosiak, Daouda Weidmann, Kristian Hlynsson, Jordy Bawuah, Remko Pasveer, Krzysztof Kurowski, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Benjamin Nagel, Sondre Ørjasæter, Yannick Gerritsen, Jip Meilink

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