Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland

· Arena Kombetare, Tirana· Referee S. Ebner

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Midtjylland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Egnatia RrogozhinëDrawFC Midtjylland

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEgnatia RrogozhinëDrawFC Midtjylland
Model38%26%36%
Market16%22%62%
Published21%23%56%
Edge+5%+1%-6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.52Now 1.52 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Egnatia Rrogozhinë5.856.00+0.15
Draw4.124.25+0.13
FC Midtjylland1.521.52-0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.52FC Midtjylland
Total expected goals
3.06
Attack rating (Egnatia Rrogozhinë / FC Midtjylland)
1.35 / 1.57
Defence rating (Egnatia Rrogozhinë / FC Midtjylland)
0.82 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 6.0% 5.4% 2.7% 1.4% 1 6.1% 12.1% 8.3% 4.2% 2.2% 2 5.6% 8.5% 6.4% 3.2% 1.7% 3 2.9% 4.4% 3.3% 1.7% 0.9% 4+ 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Columns: FC Midtjylland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Egnatia Rrogozhinë21%4.72
Draw23%4.31
FC Midtjylland56%1.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.45
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.67
Double chance1X (Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw)44%2.25
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or FC Midtjylland)79%1.27
Handicap -1FC Midtjylland win by 2+18%5.58
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland recent form

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4W 0D 2L
FC Midtjylland 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Midtjylland away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home only, FC Midtjylland away only.

Expected lineups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 98 Mario Dajsinani
  2. 29 Andrey Yago
  3. 33 Eneo Bitri
  4. 28 Eljon Sota
  5. 22 Guillem Jaime
  6. 20 Karim Loukili
  7. 6 Albano Aleksi
  8. 17 Altin Kryeziu
  9. 10 Alessandro Albanese
  10. 2 Daniel Adjessa
  11. 77 Ildi Gruda

Bench: Levan Tandilashvili, Zamiq Aliyev, Fernando Medeiros, Ibrahim Diabaté, Bruno Puja, Alessandro Kacbufi, Edison Ndreca, Numan Ajetovikj, Geralb Smajli, Jurguens Montenegro

FC Midtjylland lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 25 Nordin Bakker
  2. 22 Mads Bech Sørensen
  3. 4 Ousmane Diao
  4. 5 Rasmus Kristensen
  5. 20 Hong Hyun-seok
  6. 8 Philip Billing
  7. 21 Denil Castillo
  8. 98 David Martínez Morales
  9. 38 Julius Emefile
  10. 9 Mileta Rajović
  11. 10 Gue-sung Cho

Bench: Beni Junior, Mikael Uhre, Stanley Iheanacho, Pedro Bravo, Sofus Johannesen, Kjell Wätjen, Ovie Ejeheri, Abdou Aziz Ndiaye, Mark Ugboh, Friday Etim

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match