FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between FK Crvena Zvezda and Inter Club d'Escaldes, FK Crvena Zvezda has an 85% probability to win, while Inter Club d'Escaldes sits at just 5%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals show a significant disparity, with FK Crvena Zvezda at 2.78 and Inter Club d'Escaldes at 0.93.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. FK Crvena Zvezda's last six matches show a mixed bag with four wins and two losses, while Inter Club d'Escaldes has two wins in their last six matches. This inconsistency could affect the predicted dominance of FK Crvena Zvezda, despite their strong statistical edge.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes: model vs market
| Source | FK Crvena Zvezda | Draw | Inter Club d'Escaldes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Market | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| Published | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Crvena Zvezda, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 1.07 | 1.06 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 11.00 | 11.12 | +0.12 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 26.00 | 32.00 | +6.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Crvena Zvezda and Inter Club d'Escaldes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / Inter Club d'Escaldes)
- 1.55 / 0.95
- Defence rating (FK Crvena Zvezda / Inter Club d'Escaldes)
- 0.82 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Columns: Inter Club d'Escaldes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 85% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 10% | 9.80 | |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5% | 22.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Crvena Zvezda or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter Club d'Escaldes) | 15% | 6.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win by 2+ | 56% | 1.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FK Crvena Zvezda and Inter Club d'Escaldes recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
4W 1D 1L
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Crvena Zvezda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Inter Club d'Escaldes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda at home only, Inter Club d'Escaldes away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax — match page 2026-11-05
- Aarhus v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-05
- Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — match page 2026-11-05
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split 2026-11-05
- Trabzonspor v Freiburg — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-11-05
- KuPS v Gent — match page 2026-11-05
- Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- FK Crvena Zvezda, previous: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: odds and pick
- Inter Club d'Escaldes, previous: Inter Club d'Escaldes – Universitatea Craiova, 2026-10-22