Aarhus vs SC Braga preview
Aarhus faces SC Braga with a 33% chance of winning compared to Braga's 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 7%. Aarhus has shown stronger recent form, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Braga has struggled, recording 1 win in the same period.
Despite Aarhus's expected goals of 1.53 against Braga's 0.81, the match could be influenced by Braga's need to improve after a series of disappointing results. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 41%, and both teams to score is at 45%, indicating a potential for a more open game than the scoreline suggests.
Aarhus vs SC Braga: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aarhus vs SC Braga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 3.65 | 3.75 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| SC Braga | 2.05 | 1.99 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aarhus and SC Braga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Aarhus / SC Braga)
- 1.02 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Aarhus / SC Braga)
- 0.98 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus vs SC Braga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: SC Braga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus vs SC Braga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus vs SC Braga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| SC Braga | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Braga) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win by 2+ | 10% | 9.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aarhus and SC Braga recent form
Aarhus
2W 2D 2L
SC Braga
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aarhus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
SC Braga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus at home only, SC Braga away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax — match page 2026-11-05
- Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — match page 2026-11-05
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes 2026-11-05
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split 2026-11-05
- Trabzonspor v Freiburg — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-11-05
- KuPS v Gent — match page 2026-11-05
- Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Aarhus, previous: Aarhus – Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2026-10-22
- SC Braga, previous: SC Braga v Famalicao analysis
- SC Braga, next: Rio Ave – SC Braga, 2026-11-08