Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

· Europa Point Stadium· Referee P. Gryckiewicz

TipsterGrid prediction HNK Hajduk Split to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lincoln Red Imps FCDrawHNK Hajduk Split
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.88.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HNK Hajduk Split is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Lincoln Red Imps FC9.15 Draw5.20 HNK Hajduk Split1.39

Price as of

Expected return at 1.39: -6.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split, the model gives Lincoln a probability of 11% to win, while Hajduk Split stands at 69%. The most likely scoreline is projected at 0-2, with a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals.

HNK Hajduk Split's recent form shows six consecutive matches without a loss, while Lincoln has struggled, recording four losses in their last five games. This disparity in form could lead to a different outcome, especially if Lincoln can improve their attacking performance, as their expected goals sit at only 0.88 compared to Hajduk's 2.02.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLincoln Red Imps FCDrawHNK Hajduk Split
Model15%23%63%
Market12%20%69%
Published12%20%67%
Edge+1%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split odds movement

Median bookmaker price on HNK Hajduk Split, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.33Now 1.35 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lincoln Red Imps FC10.008.00-2.00
Draw4.904.75-0.15
HNK Hajduk Split1.331.35+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.88Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.02HNK Hajduk Split
Total expected goals
2.91
Attack rating (Lincoln Red Imps FC / HNK Hajduk Split)
0.81 / 1.45
Defence rating (Lincoln Red Imps FC / HNK Hajduk Split)
1.17 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 10.1% 11.2% 7.5% 6.1% 1 3.9% 10.8% 9.9% 6.7% 5.4% 2 2.1% 4.3% 4.4% 2.9% 2.4% 3 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Lincoln Red Imps FC goals. Columns: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lincoln Red Imps FC12%8.07
Draw20%4.92
HNK Hajduk Split67%1.49
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw)33%3.05
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split)88%1.14
Handicap -1HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+39%2.54
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split recent form

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1W 1D 4L
HNK Hajduk Split 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lincoln Red Imps FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

HNK Hajduk Split away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln Red Imps FC at home only, HNK Hajduk Split away only.

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot HNK Hajduk Split to win Predicted score 0 – 2 C Bet on HNK Hajduk Split
Our pick: HNK Hajduk Split to win 18+ Bet Now