FC Midtjylland vs Ajax preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between FC Midtjylland and Ajax, the probabilities show FC Midtjylland at 38% and Ajax at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have solid recent form, with FC Midtjylland winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Ajax has won 5 of their last 6.
The expected goals suggest a strong offensive display, with FC Midtjylland at 2.07 and Ajax at 1.49. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. This could stem from Ajax's recent loss, which might affect their performance despite their overall strong form. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring stands at 69%, highlighting an expectation for an engaging match.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: model vs market
| Source | FC Midtjylland | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Market | 35% | 25% | 39% |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.64.
- The market prices FC Midtjylland below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 2.81 | 2.66 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.71 | +0.04 |
| Ajax | 2.30 | 2.39 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Midtjylland and Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / Ajax)
- 1.44 / 1.60
- Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / Ajax)
- 0.86 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Ajax | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Midtjylland or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ajax) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win by 2+ | 29% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Midtjylland and Ajax recent form
FC Midtjylland
4W 1D 1L
Ajax
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Midtjylland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, Ajax away only.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Midtjylland 0 · draws 0 · Ajax 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-25 | Ajax | 3-1 | FC Midtjylland | UEFA Champions League |
| 2020-11-03 | FC Midtjylland | 1-2 | Ajax | UEFA Champions League |
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Before and after this match
- FC Midtjylland, previous: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction
- Ajax, previous: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: odds and pick
- Ajax, next: Twente vs Ajax prediction