Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

FK Jablonec vs Brighton

· Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou· Referee S. Kringstad

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Brighton to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FK JablonecDrawBrighton

FK Jablonec vs Brighton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFK JablonecDrawBrighton
Model28%25%47%
Market6%13%81%
Published12%16%73%
Edge+5%+3%-9%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FK Jablonec vs Brighton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.38Now 1.17 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FK Jablonec7.6015.00+7.40
Draw5.047.55+2.50
Brighton1.381.17-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FK Jablonec and Brighton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33FK Jablonec
1.77Brighton
Total expected goals
3.10
Attack rating (FK Jablonec / Brighton)
0.94 / 1.54
Defence rating (FK Jablonec / Brighton)
0.97 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FK Jablonec vs Brighton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 6.9% 7.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1 4.9% 11.7% 9.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2 4.0% 7.0% 6.2% 3.7% 2.4% 3 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 4+ 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: FK Jablonec goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FK Jablonec vs Brighton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FK Jablonec vs Brighton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FK Jablonec12%8.53
Draw16%6.34
Brighton73%1.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.64
Double chance1X (FK Jablonec or draw)27%3.64
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Brighton)88%1.13
Handicap -1Brighton win by 2+26%3.84
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FK Jablonec and Brighton recent form

FK Jablonec 2W 1D 3L
Brighton 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FK Jablonec at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Brighton away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: FK Jablonec at home only, Brighton away only.

Expected lineups

FK Jablonec lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jan Hanuš
  2. 20 Jiří Sláma
  3. 15 Dušan Pavlović
  4. 4 Nemanja Tekijaški
  5. 18 Martin Cedidla
  6. 6 Nelson Okeke
  7. 13 Richard Sedláček
  8. 21 Matěj Polidar
  9. 17 Saidou Alioum Moubarak
  10. 7 Vakhtang Chanturishvili
  11. 9 Antonín Růsek

Bench: Filip Zorvan, David Nykrin, Daniel Souček, Jan Chramosta, Dominik Hollý, Sebastian Nebyla, Evzen Maly, Adam Kubát, Garang Kuol, Filip Novák, Klemen Mihelak

Brighton lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Bart Verbruggen
  2. 3 Jaouen Hadjam
  3. 21 Olivier Boscagli
  4. 30 Michael Svoboda
  5. 20 Costinha
  6. 13 Pascal Groß
  7. 8 Jack Hinshelwood
  8. 35 Malick Yalcouyé
  9. 33 Matt O'Riley
  10. 10 Georginio Rutter
  11. 15 Ibrahim Osman

Bench: Lewis Dunk, Promise David, Chema Andrés, Charalampos Kostoulas, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Yasin Ayari, Tom McGill, Luka Vušković, Nehemiah Oriola, Shane Nti, Younes Ibrahim, Steven Hall

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