Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

· Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg· Referee E. Malcevs

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Freiburg to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FreiburgDrawFK Jablonec

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFreiburgDrawFK Jablonec
Model53%27%20%
Market80%14%7%
Published73%17%10%
Edge-7%+3%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.30Now 1.17 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Freiburg1.301.17-0.13
Draw5.206.83+1.62
FK Jablonec8.8814.25+5.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Freiburg and FK Jablonec expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Freiburg
0.91FK Jablonec
Total expected goals
2.52
Attack rating (Freiburg / FK Jablonec)
1.42 / 0.86
Defence rating (Freiburg / FK Jablonec)
0.89 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 6.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1 11.8% 13.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.5% 9.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3 5.6% 5.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 3.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: FK Jablonec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Freiburg vs FK Jablonec goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Freiburg vs FK Jablonec

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Freiburg73%1.37
Draw17%5.86
FK Jablonec10%10.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.17
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Freiburg or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)83%1.21
X2 (draw or FK Jablonec)27%3.71
Handicap -1Freiburg win by 2+29%3.47
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Freiburg and FK Jablonec recent form

Freiburg 5W 1D 0L
FK Jablonec 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Freiburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

FK Jablonec away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, FK Jablonec away only.

Expected lineups

Freiburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Mio Backhaus
  2. 30 Christian Günter
  3. 37 Maximilian Rosenfelder
  4. 28 Matthias Ginter
  5. 17 Lukas Kübler
  6. 6 Patrick Osterhage
  7. 8 Maximilian Eggestein
  8. 32 Vincenzo Grifo
  9. 14 Yuito Suzuki
  10. 22 Cyriaque Irié
  11. 9 Lucas Höler

Bench: Philipp Lienhart, Anthony Jung, Yannick Engelhardt, Rihito Yamamoto, Florian Müller, Jannik Huth, Philipp Treu, Igor Matanović, Jordy Makengo, Mateo Zelic, Keisuke Goto

FK Jablonec lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jan Hanuš
  2. 20 Jiří Sláma
  3. 15 Dušan Pavlović
  4. 4 Nemanja Tekijaški
  5. 18 Martin Cedidla
  6. 6 Nelson Okeke
  7. 13 Richard Sedláček
  8. 21 Matěj Polidar
  9. 17 Saidou Alioum Moubarak
  10. 7 Vakhtang Chanturishvili
  11. 9 Antonín Růsek

Bench: Filip Zorvan, David Nykrin, Daniel Souček, Jan Chramosta, Dominik Hollý, Sebastian Nebyla, Evzen Maly, Garang Kuol, Filip Novák, Klemen Mihelak

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match