Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Riga vs Kairat Almaty

· Skonto stadions, Riga· Referee F. Lata

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Riga to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RigaDrawKairat Almaty

Riga vs Kairat Almaty: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRigaDrawKairat Almaty
Model58%26%16%
Market49%27%24%
Published51%27%22%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.82.
  • The market prices Riga below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Riga vs Kairat Almaty odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Riga, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.91Now 1.92 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Riga1.911.92+0.01
Draw3.463.46-0.00
Kairat Almaty3.924.00+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Riga and Kairat Almaty expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Riga
0.82Kairat Almaty
Total expected goals
2.55
Attack rating (Riga / Kairat Almaty)
1.23 / 0.92
Defence rating (Riga / Kairat Almaty)
0.75 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Riga vs Kairat Almaty score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 5.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.4% 12.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 6.8% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 4.3% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Riga goals. Columns: Kairat Almaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Riga vs Kairat Almaty goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Riga vs Kairat Almaty

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Riga51%1.95
Draw27%3.72
Kairat Almaty22%4.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.13
Under 2.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (Riga or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Kairat Almaty)49%2.06
Handicap -1Riga win by 2+34%2.98
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Riga and Kairat Almaty recent form

Riga 3W 2D 1L
Kairat Almaty 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Riga at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Riga at home only, Kairat Almaty away only.

Expected lineups

Riga lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Kenan Pirić
  2. 23 Maksims Tonisevs
  3. 5 Karl Gameni Wassom
  4. 21 Baba Musah
  5. 13 Raivis Jurkovskis
  6. 8 Iago Siqueira Augusto
  7. 40 Ahmed Ankrah
  8. 7 Raki Aouani
  9. 18 Salah Oulad M'Hand
  10. 22 Meïssa Diop
  11. 19 Muhammed Badamosi

Bench: Coli Saco, Reginaldo Ramires, Samuel Pedro, Abdulrahman Taiwo, Antonijs Černomordijs, Marcis Kazainis, Frenks Orols

Kairat Almaty lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Temirlan Anarbekov
  2. 3 Luís Mata
  3. 25 Aleksandr Shirobokov
  4. 14 Aleksandr Martynovich
  5. 20 Erkin Tapalov
  6. 13 Jaakko Oksanen
  7. 22 Gustavo Mendonca
  8. 19 Oiva Jukkola
  9. 28 Marc Gual
  10. 24 Aleksandr Mrynskiy
  11. 9 Edmilson

Bench: Damir Kasabulat, Lev Kurgin, Adilet Sadybekov, Olzhas Baibek, Mansur Birkurmanov, Azamat Tuyakbayev, Mukhamedali Abish, Ismail Bekbolat, Sherkhan Kalmurza

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match