Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

· Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok· Referee Ondrej Berka

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Anderlecht to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JagielloniaDrawAnderlecht

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJagielloniaDrawAnderlecht
Model35%29%36%
Market31%27%42%
Published32%27%41%
Edge+1%0%-2%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Anderlecht, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.30Now 2.25 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Jagiellonia2.933.10+0.17
Draw3.573.52-0.04
Anderlecht2.302.25-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Jagiellonia
1.32Anderlecht
Total expected goals
2.60
Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Anderlecht)
1.08 / 0.97
Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Anderlecht)
1.16 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.7% 8.5% 6.4% 2.8% 1.2% 1 8.3% 13.8% 8.3% 3.6% 1.6% 2 6.1% 8.1% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.6% 3.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Anderlecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Jagiellonia32%3.14
Draw27%3.64
Anderlecht41%2.45
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.07
Under 2.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Jagiellonia or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Anderlecht)68%1.47
Handicap -1Anderlecht win by 2+17%5.95
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Jagiellonia and Anderlecht recent form

Jagiellonia 1W 0D 5L
Anderlecht 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Jagiellonia at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Anderlecht away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, Anderlecht away only.

Injuries & availability

Jagiellonia absences

  • C. Polak off the roster
  • D. Drachal off the roster
  • D. Rallis off the roster
  • N. Prelec inactive
  • N. Wojtuszek inactive
  • Z. Zalewski off the roster

Anderlecht absences

  • G. Biancone hamstring injury
  • I. Camara foot injury
  • I. Koutsoupias off the roster
  • K. Sardella thigh injury
  • L. Hey broken leg

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Jagiellonia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 50 S. Abramowicz
  2. 23 Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia
  3. 4 Y. Kobayashi
  4. 5 Bernardo Vital
  5. 27 Rodrigo Conceição
  6. 85 Eryk Kozlowski
  7. 14 H. Finndell
  8. 19 A. Klynge
  9. 7 K. Szmyt
  10. 99 N. Prelec
  11. 72 K. Jóźwiak

Bench: M. Perchel, D. Stojinović, T. Romanczuk, J. Agbonifo, Jesús Imaz, Y. Sylla, B. Wdowik, Sergio Lozano, O. Sow, A. Ćirković, A. Konstantopoulos

Anderlecht lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 26 C. Coosemans
  2. 5 O. Reabciuk
  3. 4 G. Biancone
  4. 27 L. Pétrot
  5. 50 K. Barry
  6. 19 T. Aasgaard
  7. 29 M. Stroeykens
  8. 83 T. Degreef
  9. 10 M. Winkler
  10. 9 M. Cvetković
  11. 18 L. Ambros

Bench: L. Augustinsson, R. Amané, O. Antman, D. Sikan, T. Bentayeb, E. Llansana, J. Heekeren, Jayden Onia Seke, N. Cobiella, M. Kana, A. Maamar, A. Bertaccini

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match