Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 9

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

· Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden· Referee Stan Teuben

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was AZ Alkmaar to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CambuurDrawAZ Alkmaar

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCambuurDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model25%25%51%
Market16%20%64%
Published18%21%61%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.36Now 1.46 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cambuur7.305.96-1.34
Draw5.054.78-0.27
AZ Alkmaar1.361.46+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Cambuur
1.87AZ Alkmaar
Total expected goals
3.15
Attack rating (Cambuur / AZ Alkmaar)
0.92 / 1.08
Defence rating (Cambuur / AZ Alkmaar)
1.16 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.0% 7.5% 4.7% 3.4% 1 4.4% 11.3% 9.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2 3.5% 6.5% 6.1% 3.8% 2.7% 3 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: Cambuur goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cambuur18%5.53
Draw21%4.77
AZ Alkmaar61%1.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (Cambuur or draw)39%2.56
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar)82%1.22
Handicap -1AZ Alkmaar win by 2+29%3.44
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar recent form

Cambuur 2W 2D 2L
AZ Alkmaar 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cambuur at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AZ Alkmaar away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cambuur at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.

Injuries & availability

Cambuur absences

  • D. Visser knee injury
  • J. Amofa injury
  • W. Asselman injury

AZ Alkmaar absences

  • J. Hornkamp injury
  • K. Smit injury
  • S. Resink knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Cambuur lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Jansen
  2. 28 M. Costarelli
  3. 14 B. van Duijl
  4. 4 I. Baouf
  5. 2 D. Bouah
  6. 8 N. Souren
  7. 33 M. Maertens
  8. 11 I. Hamache
  9. 10 R. El Arguioui
  10. 30 J. Çeka
  11. 13 N. Binder

Bench: J. Berkhout, S. Bouhoudane, S. Vink, F. Kvam, R. Mulders, Ethan Apkakou, L. Plogmann, L. Jetten, M. Kalisvaart, W. Kooistra, Iwan Henstra, D. Westerhof

AZ Alkmaar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 J. De Busser
  2. 5 M. Chávez
  3. 4 L. Schouten
  4. 3 W. Goes
  5. 22 E. Dijkstra
  6. 6 P. Koopmeiners
  7. 8 J. Clasie
  8. 11 R. Daal
  9. 14 C. Stengs
  10. 24 A. Oufkir
  11. 9 M. Meerdink

Bench: R. Owusu-Oduro, S. Maikuma, Weslley Patati, V. Byskov, B. Kovacs, D. Kwakman, W. Hoedt, D. Kasius, R. Ichihara, M. de Wit

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cambuur 0 · draws 4 · AZ Alkmaar 6.

CambuurDrawsAZ Alkmaar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-25AZ Alkmaar2-1CambuurEredivisie
2022-08-28Cambuur0-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2022-01-22AZ Alkmaar0-0CambuurEredivisie
2021-10-03Cambuur1-3AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2017-03-02AZ Alkmaar0-0CambuurKNVB Beker
2016-01-27AZ Alkmaar3-1CambuurEredivisie
2015-10-17Cambuur1-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2015-03-21AZ Alkmaar2-1CambuurEredivisie
2014-11-29Cambuur0-2AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2014-03-30Cambuur0-0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match