Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

· GSP Stadium, Nicosia· Referee Jasper Vergoote

Full time1 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Benfica to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Omonia NicosiaDrawBenfica

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOmonia NicosiaDrawBenfica
Model40%27%34%
Market11%17%72%
Published18%20%63%
Edge+7%+2%-10%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.40Now 1.31 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Omonia Nicosia7.308.90+1.60
Draw5.005.55+0.55
Benfica1.401.31-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Omonia Nicosia
1.40Benfica
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Omonia Nicosia / Benfica)
1.40 / 1.87
Defence rating (Omonia Nicosia / Benfica)
0.64 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 6.4% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 1 7.1% 12.6% 8.0% 3.7% 1.8% 2 6.2% 8.7% 6.1% 2.8% 1.4% 3 3.2% 4.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.7% 2.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Omonia Nicosia goals. Columns: Benfica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Omonia Nicosia18%5.59
Draw20%5.12
Benfica63%1.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.51
Double chance1X (Omonia Nicosia or draw)37%2.67
12 (either side)80%1.24
X2 (draw or Benfica)82%1.22
Handicap -1Benfica win by 2+16%6.26
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica recent form

Omonia Nicosia 4W 2D 0L
Benfica 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Omonia Nicosia at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Benfica away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia at home only, Benfica away only.

Injuries & availability

Omonia Nicosia absences

  • B. Akintola muscle injury
  • C. Eiting knee injury
  • F. Kitsos knee injury
  • M. Odubajo inactive
  • S. Coulibaly inactive

Benfica absences

  • D. Banjaqui muscle injury
  • D. Ferreira inactive
  • E. Barrenechea injury
  • J. Duran inactive
  • J. Kaminski muscle injury
  • L. Barreiro inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Omonia Nicosia lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 40 Fabiano
  2. 29 J. Balkovec
  3. 37 Ľ. Šatka
  4. 93 J. Duverne
  5. 77 L. Négo
  6. 7 J. Montnor
  7. 14 M. Marić
  8. 74 P. Andreou
  9. 11 Ewandro
  10. 17 F. Tănase
  11. 9 A. Kakoullis

Bench: T. Kaminski, L. Brouwers, M. Mayambela, M. Tankovic, S. Simič, A. Christou, A. Neophytou, C. Konstantinidis, C. Panagiotis, L. Diony

Benfica lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Trubin
  2. 34 S. El Karouani
  3. 3 A. Circati
  4. 44 Tomás Araújo
  5. 6 A. Bah
  6. 16 Manu
  7. 8 F. Aursnes
  8. 21 A. Schjelderup
  9. 30 C. Echeverri
  10. 27 Rafa
  11. 14 V. Pavlidis

Bench: C. Lenglet, H. Sudakov, D. Lukebakio, Samuel Soares, G. Prestianni, S. Dahl, Gabriel Indio, João Palhinha, J. Neto, A. Cabral, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match