Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Juventus vs Rennes

· Allianz Stadium, Turin· Referee Morten Krogh

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Juventus to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JuventusDrawRennes

Why this pick: Juventus vs Rennes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusRennes
1.84 xG per 90 2.33
1.84 npxG per 90 1.95
9.7 PPDA 10.4
9.6 Deep completions per 90 9.0
2.27 xPTS per 90 1.47

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs Rennes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuventusDrawRennes
Model76%15%9%
Market66%20%13%
Published69%19%12%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 0.91.
  • The market prices Juventus below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventus vs Rennes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.61Now 1.44 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Juventus1.611.44-0.17
Draw4.104.75+0.65
Rennes5.507.10+1.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventus and Rennes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.78Juventus
0.91Rennes
Total expected goals
3.70
Attack rating (Juventus / Rennes)
1.37 / 1.35
Defence rating (Juventus / Rennes)
0.58 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs Rennes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1 6.3% 6.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2 9.6% 8.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.9% 8.1% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 12.3% 11.2% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs Rennes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs Rennes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juventus69%1.46
Draw19%5.28
Rennes12%8.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.49
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Juventus or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Rennes)31%3.20
Handicap -1Juventus win by 2+56%1.78
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventus and Rennes recent form

Juventus 3W 1D 2L
Rennes 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventus at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
5.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Rennes away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Rennes away only.

Injuries & availability

Juventus absences

  • A. Durmisi suspended
  • A. Milik inactive
  • D. Rugani off the roster
  • E. Zhegrova off the roster
  • F. Conceicao shoulder injury
  • J. Ekhator muscle injury
  • K. Grabara knee injury
  • K. Thuram knee injury
  • K. Yildiz foot injury
  • M. Locatelli knee injury

Rennes absences

  • E. Lepaul ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Juventus lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 25 G. Vicario
  2. 6 L. Kelly
  3. 3 Bremer
  4. 4 F. Gatti
  5. 20 A. Cambiaso
  6. 8 T. Koopmeiners
  7. 12 Douglas Luiz
  8. 2 Z. Çelik
  9. 22 W. McKennie
  10. 27 N. Woltemade
  11. 9 R. Kolo Muani

Bench: J. Boga, P. Kalulu, Kerim-Sam Alajbegović, C. Pinsoglio, J. Lucumí, P. Sarr, N. González, J. Cabal, Neto, A. Merola

Rennes lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 30 B. Samba
  2. 18 M. Nagida
  3. 24 A. Rouault
  4. 4 C. Cresswell
  5. 48 A. Ait Boudlal
  6. 14 B. Reynolds
  7. 45 M. Camara
  8. 21 V. Rongier
  9. 28 A. Thomasson
  10. 11 Mousa Tamari
  11. 22 B. Dia

Bench: Gonçalo Oliveira, D. Cissé, L. Blas, Eliezer Mayenda, N. Lemaître, S. Szymański, Q. Merlin, Kilian Belazzoug, H. Do Marcolino, A. Nordin, I. Soumaré, P. Frankowski

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