Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland

· Stadion Miejski, Poznan· Referee Balazs Berke

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Sunderland to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

3% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lech PoznanDrawSunderland

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLech PoznanDrawSunderland
Model75%14%11%
Market21%24%55%
Published34%22%44%
Edge+14%-3%-11%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.63Now 1.71 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lech Poznan5.004.60-0.40
Draw4.103.90-0.20
Sunderland1.631.71+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lech Poznan and Sunderland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.32Lech Poznan
1.34Sunderland
Total expected goals
4.66
Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Sunderland)
1.82 / 1.04
Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Sunderland)
1.11 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1 2.7% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 2 5.2% 7.0% 4.7% 2.1% 1.0% 3 5.8% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 11.0% 14.8% 10.0% 4.5% 2.0%

Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lech Poznan34%2.93
Draw22%4.63
Sunderland44%2.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.39
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.40
No28%3.53
Double chance1X (Lech Poznan or draw)56%1.80
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Sunderland)66%1.52
Handicap -1Sunderland win by 2+5%22.07
Push (exactly one goal)7%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lech Poznan and Sunderland recent form

Lech Poznan 3W 0D 3L
Sunderland 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lech Poznan at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Sunderland away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Sunderland away only.

Injuries & availability

Lech Poznan absences

  • A. Douglas ankle injury
  • A. Gholizadeh knee injury
  • A. Sayyadmanesh groin injury
  • J. Moutinho inactive
  • R. Gumny inactive
  • T. Yegbe inactive
  • W. Monka injury

Sunderland absences

  • A. Browne off the roster
  • B. Brobbey inactive
  • C. Talbi off the roster
  • D. Ballard muscle injury
  • J. Angulo off the roster
  • J. Ta Bi off the roster
  • M. Ellborg off the roster
  • R. Mundle knee injury
  • T. Meunier muscle injury
  • W. Isidor injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lech Poznan lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Lis
  2. 15 M. Gurgul
  3. 59 T. Yegbe
  4. 72 M. Skrzypczak
  5. 2 Joel Pereira
  6. 22 R. Murawski
  7. 43 A. Kozubal
  8. 11 D. Håkans
  9. 21 Pablo Rodríguez
  10. 10 P. Wålemark
  11. 9 M. Ishak

Bench: G. Berggren, Y. Agnero, L. Bengtsson, F. Jagiełło, Wiktor Obremski, M. Pruchniewski, W. Szymczak, L. Palma, H. Janyszka

Sunderland lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 R. Roefs
  2. 6 D. Methalie
  3. 13 L. O'Nien
  4. 4 K. Danso
  5. 20 N. Mukiele
  6. 29 Jules Ahoka
  7. 34 G. Xhaka
  8. 10 N. Angulo
  9. 19 H. Diarra
  10. 39 M. Fofana
  11. 57 Timur Tuterov

Bench: C. Rigg, O. Alderete, Reinildo, S. Moore, N. Sadiki, E. Le Fée, T. Hume, J. Whittaker, T. Ogunsuyi, Jenson Jones, F. Scott, T. Proctor

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match