Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

· Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan· Referee Patrik Kolaric

Full time0 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was AZ Alkmaar to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ararat-ArmeniaDrawAZ Alkmaar

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArarat-ArmeniaDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model40%28%32%
Market13%19%68%
Published20%21%59%
Edge+7%+2%-9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.50Now 1.39 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ararat-Armenia6.007.55+1.55
Draw4.455.03+0.58
AZ Alkmaar1.501.39-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Ararat-Armenia
1.31AZ Alkmaar
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Ararat-Armenia / AZ Alkmaar)
1.02 / 1.22
Defence rating (Ararat-Armenia / AZ Alkmaar)
0.92 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.8% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 1 7.9% 13.1% 7.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Ararat-Armenia goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ararat-Armenia20%5.12
Draw21%4.74
AZ Alkmaar59%1.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.36
Double chance1X (Ararat-Armenia or draw)41%2.46
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar)80%1.24
Handicap -1AZ Alkmaar win by 2+15%6.84
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar recent form

Ararat-Armenia 3W 1D 2L
AZ Alkmaar 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ararat-Armenia at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

AZ Alkmaar away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat-Armenia at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.

Injuries & availability

Ararat-Armenia absences

  • P. Ayongo off the roster
  • Z. Banjaqui injury

AZ Alkmaar absences

  • H. Verhulst off the roster
  • J. Clasie knock
  • J. Hornkamp injury
  • K. Smit injury
  • S. Resink knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Ararat-Armenia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 98 João Bravim
  2. 16 E. Grigoryan
  3. 47 A. Malis
  4. 43 Bruno Wilson
  5. 2 Hugo Oliveira
  6. 17 M. Carlier
  7. 8 J. Balanta
  8. 10 A. Ambartsumyan
  9. 7 Z. Shaghoyan
  10. 91 Sandro Lima
  11. 77 A. Serobyan

Bench: A. Nersesyan, Luís Felipe, A. Eloyan, Bruno Pereira, K. Muradyan, A. Ndour, B. Oliveira, França

AZ Alkmaar lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 28 J. De Busser
  2. 34 M. de Wit
  3. 29 W. Hoedt
  4. 4 L. Schouten
  5. 2 S. Maikuma
  6. 21 D. Kwakman
  7. 17 V. Byskov
  8. 6 P. Koopmeiners
  9. 24 A. Oufkir
  10. 18 B. Kovacs
  11. 7 Weslley Patati

Bench: R. Owusu-Oduro, M. Chávez, M. Meerdink, R. Daal, H. Verhulst, C. Stengs, E. Dijkstra, D. Kasius, R. Ichihara, H. de Wit

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