Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Bournemouth vs AC Milan

· Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth· Referee Vassilis Fotias

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Bournemouth to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BournemouthDrawAC Milan

Why this pick: Bournemouth vs AC Milan

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BournemouthAC Milan
2.02 xG per 90 1.99
2.02 npxG per 90 1.80
10.2 PPDA 15.0
8.0 Deep completions per 90 6.5
1.76 xPTS per 90 1.63

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bournemouth vs AC Milan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBournemouthDrawAC Milan
Model63%20%17%
Market48%25%27%
Published52%24%24%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.17.
  • The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bournemouth vs AC Milan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.21Now 1.96 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bournemouth2.211.96-0.25
Draw3.583.80+0.22
AC Milan3.103.55+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bournemouth and AC Milan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36Bournemouth
1.17AC Milan
Total expected goals
3.54
Attack rating (Bournemouth / AC Milan)
1.53 / 1.32
Defence rating (Bournemouth / AC Milan)
0.75 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bournemouth vs AC Milan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 2.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.1% 8.9% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7% 2 8.1% 9.5% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.4% 7.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 6.6% 7.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%

Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bournemouth vs AC Milan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bournemouth vs AC Milan

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bournemouth52%1.92
Draw24%4.21
AC Milan24%4.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.21
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (Bournemouth or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or AC Milan)48%2.09
Handicap -1Bournemouth win by 2+42%2.39
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bournemouth and AC Milan recent form

Bournemouth 3W 1D 2L
AC Milan 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bournemouth at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

AC Milan away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, AC Milan away only.

Injuries & availability

Bournemouth absences

  • A. Scott thigh injury
  • D. Jebbison off the roster
  • E. J. Kroupi foot injury
  • F. Forster off the roster
  • J. Araujo thigh injury
  • J. Sanchez off the roster
  • M. Aarons off the roster
  • V. Milosavljevic off the roster

AC Milan absences

  • A. Saelemaekers ankle injury
  • F. Terracciano suspended
  • G. Ramos calf injury
  • M. Gabbia thigh injury
  • S. Chukwueze hip injury
  • W. Bondo off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bournemouth lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 20 M. Di Gregorio
  2. 3 A. Truffert
  3. 14 António Silva
  4. 5 J. Hill
  5. 18 B. Diakité
  6. 11 B. Doak
  7. 12 T. Adams
  8. 10 R. Christie
  9. 16 M. Tavernier
  10. 19 J. Kluivert
  11. 9 Evanilson

Bench: Đ. Petrović, L. Cook, J. Soler, D. Brooks, A. Smith, A. Adli, A. Tóth, Á. Rodríguez, Rayan, M. Allan

AC Milan lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 16 M. Maignan
  2. 31 S. Pavlović
  3. 5 K. De Winter
  4. 23 F. Tomori
  5. 2 P. Estupiñán
  6. 30 A. Jashari
  7. 80 Y. Musah
  8. 20 O. Hutchinson
  9. 22 Diego Moreira
  10. 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
  11. 70 A. Cissè

Bench: C. Pulišić, A. Rabiot, S. Bocoum, L. Modrić, C. Comotto, D. Bartesaghi, Mario Gila, V. Vladimirov, L. P. Bouyer, F. Camarda, L. Torriani

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match