Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

· Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok· Referee Anastasios Papapetrou

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Jagiellonia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JagielloniaDrawArarat-Armenia

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJagielloniaDrawArarat-Armenia
Model37%26%37%
Market68%20%13%
Published60%21%19%
Edge-8%+2%+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.40Now 1.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Jagiellonia1.401.40+0.00
Draw4.724.85+0.12
Ararat-Armenia7.007.50+0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Jagiellonia
1.61Ararat-Armenia
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Ararat-Armenia)
1.09 / 1.13
Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Ararat-Armenia)
1.22 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 5.7% 5.5% 2.9% 1.7% 1 5.5% 11.6% 8.5% 4.5% 2.6% 2 5.1% 8.2% 6.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3 2.7% 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 1.1% 4+ 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Ararat-Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Jagiellonia60%1.66
Draw21%4.74
Ararat-Armenia19%5.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.79
Double chance1X (Jagiellonia or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Ararat-Armenia)40%2.51
Handicap -1Jagiellonia win by 2+18%5.52
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia recent form

Jagiellonia 1W 0D 5L
Ararat-Armenia 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Jagiellonia at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Ararat-Armenia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, Ararat-Armenia away only.

Injuries & availability

Jagiellonia absences

  • C. Polak off the roster
  • D. Drachal off the roster
  • D. Rallis off the roster
  • N. Prelec inactive
  • N. Wojtuszek inactive
  • Z. Zalewski off the roster

Ararat-Armenia absences

  • P. Ayongo off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Jagiellonia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 50 S. Abramowicz
  2. 20 B. Wdowik
  3. 4 Y. Kobayashi
  4. 5 Bernardo Vital
  5. 27 Rodrigo Conceição
  6. 11 Jesús Imaz
  7. 6 T. Romanczuk
  8. 19 A. Klynge
  9. 7 K. Szmyt
  10. 30 O. Sow
  11. 72 K. Jóźwiak

Bench: M. Perchel, D. Stojinović, J. Agbonifo, H. Finndell, Sergio Lozano, Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia, A. Ćirković, A. Konstantopoulos, Eryk Kozlowski

Ararat-Armenia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 98 João Bravim
  2. 16 E. Grigoryan
  3. 5 Luís Felipe
  4. 43 Bruno Wilson
  5. 2 Hugo Oliveira
  6. 20 A. Tera
  7. 17 M. Carlier
  8. 8 J. Balanta
  9. 11 Zidane Banjaqui
  10. 91 Sandro Lima
  11. 77 A. Serobyan

Bench: A. Nersesyan, Z. Shaghoyan, A. Eloyan, A. Ambartsumyan, Bruno Pereira, K. Muradyan, A. Ndour, A. Malis, França

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