Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Plzen vs Levski Sofia

· Doosan Arena, Pilsner· Referee Alejandro Hernandez

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Plzen to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PlzenDrawLevski Sofia

Plzen vs Levski Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePlzenDrawLevski Sofia
Model31%28%41%
Market55%24%21%
Published49%25%26%
Edge-6%+1%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.70Now 1.74 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Plzen1.701.74+0.04
Draw4.013.92-0.08
Levski Sofia4.604.60+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Plzen and Levski Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Plzen
1.47Levski Sofia
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Plzen / Levski Sofia)
1.28 / 1.03
Defence rating (Plzen / Levski Sofia)
1.21 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 8.7% 7.3% 3.6% 1.8% 1 7.1% 13.4% 8.9% 4.4% 2.2% 2 5.1% 7.5% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 3 2.1% 3.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Plzen goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Plzen vs Levski Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Plzen49%2.05
Draw25%3.96
Levski Sofia26%3.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.98
Under 2.549%2.03
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Plzen or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Levski Sofia)51%1.95
Handicap -1Plzen win by 2+13%7.56
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Plzen and Levski Sofia recent form

Plzen 2W 0D 4L
Levski Sofia 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Plzen at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Levski Sofia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Plzen at home only, Levski Sofia away only.

Injuries & availability

Plzen absences

  • A. Sojka health problems
  • J. Paluska coach's decision
  • M. Tvrdon off the roster
  • P. Adu coach's decision
  • V. Jemelka knee injury

Levski Sofia absences

  • A. Mitkov injury
  • G. Trdin injury
  • M. Sangare off the roster
  • O. Kamdem off the roster
  • P. Hristov off the roster
  • R. Kirilov knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Plzen lineup · 4-1-2-1-2

  1. 44 F. Wiegele
  2. 2 T. Pališčák
  3. 3 D. Vavro
  4. 40 S. Dweh
  5. 99 A. Memić
  6. 6 L. Červ
  7. 19 C. Souaré
  8. 18 T. Ladra
  9. 17 P. Hrošovský
  10. 9 D. Višinský
  11. 25 C. Kabongo

Bench: D. Ťapaj, Karel Spáčil, S. Lawal, M. Toure, M. Vydra, A. Sojka, Merchas Doski, Jiří Maxim Panoš, B. Faal, A. Gabriel, S. Pirgić, F. Prebsl

Levski Sofia lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 92 S. Vutsov
  2. 3 Maicon
  3. 4 C. Makoun
  4. 50 K. Dimitrov
  5. 21 Aldair
  6. 19 E. El Moubarik
  7. 8 M. Grujić
  8. 17 Everton Bala
  9. 35 Serginho
  10. 22 M. Soula
  11. 7 Reinaldo

Bench: O. Vladimirov, Hevertton Santos, J. Perea, A. Oko-Flex, Álex Centelles, David Kusso, S. Stoyanchov, N. Serafimov, A. Bouras, M. Lukov

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match