Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

· Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom· Referee Mohammad Al-Emara

Full time0 – 6

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Sociedad to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LillestromDrawReal Sociedad

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLillestromDrawReal Sociedad
Model62%21%18%
Market15%19%66%
Published27%19%54%
Edge+12%0%-12%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.53Now 1.44 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lillestrom5.506.42+0.92
Draw4.555.00+0.45
Real Sociedad1.531.44-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lillestrom and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.31Lillestrom
1.21Real Sociedad
Total expected goals
3.52
Attack rating (Lillestrom / Real Sociedad)
1.18 / 1.05
Defence rating (Lillestrom / Real Sociedad)
0.98 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 2.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 1 6.0% 9.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 2 7.9% 9.6% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 6.1% 7.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 6.1% 7.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7%

Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lillestrom27%3.76
Draw19%5.13
Real Sociedad54%1.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.18
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.78
Double chance1X (Lillestrom or draw)46%2.17
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)73%1.36
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win by 2+7%13.80
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lillestrom and Real Sociedad recent form

Lillestrom 2W 2D 2L
Real Sociedad 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lillestrom at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Real Sociedad away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Lillestrom at home only, Real Sociedad away only.

Injuries & availability

Lillestrom absences

  • C. Jebara injury
  • E. B. Garnas knee injury
  • L. Alperud inactive
  • L. Ranger inactive

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • J. Aramburu leg injury
  • L. Beitia ankle injury
  • Y. Herrera calf injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lillestrom lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 P. Dahlberg
  2. 26 Y. Paintsil
  3. 28 R. Gabrielsen
  4. 5 S. Foss
  5. 3 S. Ottesen
  6. 14 G. Nyheim
  7. 21 F. Ottosson
  8. 29 Y. Ibrahimaj
  9. 20 Vá
  10. 10 T. Lehne Olsen
  11. 22 D. Bassi

Bench: S. Hagerup, L. Ranger, L. Alperud, F. Gulbrandsen, F. Elkær, G. Nordh, H. Melland, E. Kitolano, K. Krygård, S. Akanji, S. Kristiansen

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Unai Marrero
  2. 17 Sergio Gómez
  3. 6 Jon Martín
  4. 19 M. Sarr
  5. 5 Zubeldia
  6. 11 Gonçalo Guedes
  7. 18 Carlos Soler
  8. 4 Jon Gorrotxategi
  9. 14 T. Kubo
  10. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal
  11. 24 L. Sučić

Bench: Álex Remiro, Aihen Muñoz, Barrenetxea, Beñat Turrientes, O. Óskarsson, J. Ochieng, Pablo Marín, Jon Pacheco, Héctor Fort, A. Zakharyan, A. Lebarbier, Alex Garcia

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match