Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 10

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

· Freethiel Stadion, Beveren· Referee B. Put

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Union St. Gilloise to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SK BeverenDrawUnion St. Gilloise

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSK BeverenDrawUnion St. Gilloise
Model16%19%65%
Market15%20%65%
Published15%20%65%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.56Now 1.44 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SK Beveren5.576.17+0.60
Draw4.434.55+0.12
Union St. Gilloise1.561.44-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29SK Beveren
2.60Union St. Gilloise
Total expected goals
3.90
Attack rating (SK Beveren / Union St. Gilloise)
1.29 / 1.85
Defence rating (SK Beveren / Union St. Gilloise)
1.12 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 4.6% 6.9% 6.0% 7.2% 1 1.9% 7.5% 8.9% 7.7% 9.4% 2 1.7% 4.4% 5.8% 5.0% 6.1% 3 0.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1%

Rows: SK Beveren goals. Columns: Union St. Gilloise goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SK Beveren15%6.49
Draw20%5.00
Union St. Gilloise65%1.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.34
Under 2.525%3.93
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.11
Double chance1X (SK Beveren or draw)35%2.83
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Union St. Gilloise)85%1.18
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise recent form

SK Beveren 3W 1D 2L
Union St. Gilloise 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SK Beveren at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Union St. Gilloise away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: SK Beveren at home only, Union St. Gilloise away only.

Expected lineups

SK Beveren lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Johannes Schenk
  2. 4 Christophe Janssens
  3. 31 Bruno Godeau
  4. 3 Viktor Boone
  5. 21 Laurent Jans
  6. 44 Cheick Oumar Condé
  7. 18 Sieben Dewaele
  8. 17 Jearl Margaritha
  9. 24 Arno Verschueren
  10. 9 Moise Kaboré
  11. 33 Victor Olatunji

Bench: Dominic Thompson, Chris Lokesa, Ferre Slegers, Christian Brüls, Yoni Gomis, Jannik Thomas Robatsch, Stephane Keller, Josua Lusamba Tshiolola, Lennart Mertens

Union St. Gilloise lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 12 Hervé Koffi
  2. 29 Massire Sylla
  3. 4 Nohim Chibani
  4. 55 Nikki Havenaar
  5. 11 Guilherme Smith
  6. 6 Kamiel Van de Perre
  7. 23 Besfort Zeneli
  8. 27 Louis Patris
  9. 38 Relebohile Mofokeng
  10. 13 Kevin Rodriguez
  11. 30 Raul Florucz

Bench: Vic Chambaere, Adem Zorgane, Anouar Ait El Hadj, Ivan Pavlić, Dylan Aquino, Denzel De Roeve, Ross Sykes, Darius Olaru, Keo Boets

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: SK Beveren 1 · draws 0 · Union St. Gilloise 2.

SK BeverenDrawsUnion St. Gilloise
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-12-07SK Beveren0-2Union St. GilloiseCup
2019-04-27SK Beveren3-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
2019-04-06Union St. Gilloise5-1SK BeverenJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match