Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

Gent vs Anderlecht

· Planet Group Arena, Gent· Referee E. Lambrechts

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Gent to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GentDrawAnderlecht

Gent vs Anderlecht: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGentDrawAnderlecht
Model38%31%31%
Market38%29%32%
Published38%30%32%
Edge0%+1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gent vs Anderlecht odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gent, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.49Now 2.46 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gent2.492.46-0.03
Draw3.063.20+0.14
Anderlecht2.962.90-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gent and Anderlecht expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Gent
1.05Anderlecht
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (Gent / Anderlecht)
1.11 / 1.07
Defence rating (Gent / Anderlecht)
0.78 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gent vs Anderlecht score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 9.9% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 1 11.3% 14.6% 7.0% 2.5% 0.8% 2 7.5% 7.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 3 3.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Gent goals. Columns: Anderlecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gent vs Anderlecht goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gent vs Anderlecht

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gent38%2.63
Draw30%3.35
Anderlecht32%3.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.58
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.15
No53%1.87
Double chance1X (Gent or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Anderlecht)62%1.61
Handicap -1Gent win by 2+17%6.03
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gent and Anderlecht recent form

Gent 3W 2D 1L
Anderlecht 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gent at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Anderlecht away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gent at home only, Anderlecht away only.

Expected lineups

Gent lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 33 Davy Roef
  2. 44 Siebe Van der Heyden
  3. 16 Christian Burgess
  4. 3 Maksim Paskotsi
  5. 20 Tiago Araújo
  6. 17 Mathias Delorge
  7. 27 Tibe De Vlieger
  8. 45 Hyllarion Goore
  9. 11 Momodou Sonko
  10. 37 Abdelkahar Kadri
  11. 75 Ibrahima Cisse

Bench: László Bénes, Aimé Omgba, Max Dean, Leonardo Lopes, Kjell Peersman, Bas Evers, Gilles De Meyer, Abdul Ayinde, Mamadou Diallo, Matties Volckaert, El Hadji Seck

Anderlecht lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 26 Colin Coosemans
  2. 5 Oleg Reabciuk
  3. 27 Léo Pétrot
  4. 4 Giulian Biancone
  5. 50 Kaïs Barry
  6. 19 Thelo Aasgaard
  7. 29 Mario Stroeykens
  8. 24 Enric Llansana
  9. 83 Tristan Degreef
  10. 9 Mihajlo Cvetković
  11. 10 Marten Winkler

Bench: Ludwig Augustinsson, Oliver Antman, Danylo Sikan, Lukáš Ambros, Tawfik Bentayeb, Ilias Koutsoupias, Justin Heekeren, Jayden Onia Seke, Marco Kana, Michiel Haentjens, Ali Maamar, Adriano Bertaccini

Gent vs Anderlecht head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gent 2 · draws 1 · Anderlecht 7.

GentDrawsAnderlecht
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Gent1-1AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
2026-04-12Anderlecht3-1GentJupiler Pro League
2026-01-18Gent4-2AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
2026-01-15Anderlecht1-0GentBelgium Cup
2025-09-23Anderlecht1-0GentJupiler Pro League
2025-04-27Gent0-1AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
2025-04-23Anderlecht5-0GentJupiler Pro League
2025-02-02Gent1-0AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
2024-11-24Anderlecht6-0GentJupiler Pro League
2024-02-04Anderlecht1-0GentJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match