Blackburn 2-0 Wrexham: Prediction vs Result 24.10.26

Blackburn vs Wrexham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Blackburn	Draw	Wrexham
Model	46%	25%	29%
Market	35%	29%	36%
Published	38%	28%	34%
Edge	+3%	-1%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Blackburn below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Blackburn vs Wrexham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Blackburn, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.70Now 2.70 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Blackburn	2.70	2.70	+0.00
Draw	3.12	3.20	+0.08
Wrexham	2.60	2.62	+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Blackburn and Wrexham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Blackburn

1.39Wrexham

Total expected goals: 3.20
Attack rating (Blackburn / Wrexham): 1.14 / 1.06
Defence rating (Blackburn / Wrexham): 1.07 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Blackburn vs Wrexham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 4.7% 4.0% 1.8% 0.9% 1 6.3% 11.3% 7.2% 3.3% 1.6% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.0% 5.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Blackburn goals. Columns: Wrexham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Blackburn vs Wrexham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Blackburn vs Wrexham

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Blackburn	38%	2.65
	Draw	28%	3.54
	Wrexham	34%	2.93
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.61
	Under 2.5	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.77
Double chance	1X (Blackburn or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Wrexham)	62%	1.60
Handicap -1	Blackburn win by 2+	26%	3.87
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Blackburn and Wrexham recent form

Blackburn 3W 1D 2L

Wrexham 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Blackburn at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-2
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 1.80
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.

Wrexham away

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-1
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.60
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Blackburn at home only, Wrexham away only.