Swansea vs Blackburn: model vs market
| Source | Swansea | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Swansea vs Blackburn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.73 | 1.74 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | +0.15 |
| Blackburn | 4.46 | 4.55 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swansea and Blackburn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Swansea / Blackburn)
- 0.93 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Swansea / Blackburn)
- 1.00 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swansea vs Blackburn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Blackburn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swansea vs Blackburn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swansea vs Blackburn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Blackburn | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swansea or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Blackburn) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 15% | 6.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Swansea and Blackburn recent form
Swansea
4W 0D 2L
Blackburn
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swansea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swansea at home only, Blackburn away only.
Injuries & availability
Swansea absences
-
C. Burgess
achilles tendon injury
- M. K. Yeo injury
- Ronald hamstring injury
Blackburn absences
-
A. Forshaw
hip injury
-
L. Miller
achilles tendon injury
-
M. Litherland
muscle injury
- R. Morishita injury
- S. Morsy yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Swansea lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 14 J. Tymon
- 23 S. Welsh
- 5 B. Cabango
- 26 F. Lissah
- 46 S. Eustáquio
- 4 J. Fulton
- 10 Eom Ji-Sung
- 7 M. Widell
- 30 Joseph Okopu
- 31 R. Stewart
Bench: A. Fisher, J. Key, J. Seelt, E. Just, Z. Vipotnik, J. Monga, Gonçalo Franco, Tiago Parente, A. Idah
Blackburn lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 22 B. Tóth
- 3 H. Pickering
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 6 Tom Atcheson
- 2 R. Alebiosu
- 31 Kristi Montgomery
- 24 M. Baradji
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 9 A. Guðjohnsen
Bench: A. Pears, Yuri Ribeiro, A. Kargbo, D. De Neve, H. Carter, Y. Ohashi, Gady Beyuku, J. Garrett, I. Dunn
Swansea vs Blackburn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Swansea 6 · draws 0 · Blackburn 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Swansea | 3-1 | Blackburn | England Championship |
| 2025-09-30 | Blackburn | 1-2 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2025-02-22 | Swansea | 3-0 | Blackburn | Championship |
| 2024-10-19 | Blackburn | 1-0 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2024-03-02 | Swansea | 2-1 | Blackburn | Championship |
| 2023-10-28 | Blackburn | 0-1 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2023-02-18 | Blackburn | 1-0 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2022-08-06 | Swansea | 0-3 | Blackburn | Championship |
| 2022-02-05 | Swansea | 1-0 | Blackburn | Championship |
| 2021-08-07 | Blackburn | 2-1 | Swansea | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham 2026-10-30
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Stoke City vs Preston — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lincoln vs Birmingham 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Swansea, previous: QPR v Swansea analysis
- Swansea, next: Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction
- Blackburn, previous: Blackburn – Wrexham, 2026-10-24
- Blackburn, next: Blackburn vs Stoke City prediction