Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

West Ham vs Southampton

· London Stadium, London· Referee Michael Salisbury

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was West Ham to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
West HamDrawSouthampton

Why this pick: West Ham vs Southampton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (West Ham 10, Southampton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

West HamSouthampton
2.73 xG per 90 0.82
2.73 npxG per 90 0.82
16.5 PPDA 19.3
6.0 Deep completions per 90 3.0
1.90 xPTS per 90 0.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

West Ham vs Southampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWest HamDrawSouthampton
Model54%24%22%
Market57%22%21%
Published56%23%21%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.20.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

West Ham vs Southampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.67Now 1.67 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
West Ham1.671.67+0.00
Draw4.174.25+0.08
Southampton4.274.55+0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

West Ham and Southampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96West Ham
1.20Southampton
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (West Ham / Southampton)
1.84 / 1.16
Defence rating (West Ham / Southampton)
0.84 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

West Ham vs Southampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 4.1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 1 7.3% 11.0% 6.0% 2.4% 0.9% 2 8.1% 9.8% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 3 5.3% 6.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 4.1% 4.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: West Ham goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

West Ham vs Southampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for West Ham vs Southampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2West Ham56%1.78
Draw23%4.40
Southampton21%4.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.57
Double chance1X (West Ham or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Southampton)44%2.28
Handicap -1West Ham win by 2+32%3.11
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

West Ham and Southampton recent form

West Ham 3W 2D 1L
Southampton 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

West Ham at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Southampton away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: West Ham at home only, Southampton away only.

Injuries & availability

West Ham absences

  • K. Lamadrid injury

Southampton absences

  • C. Larin hamstring injury
  • F. Downes ankle injury
  • M. Roerslev Rasmussen health problems

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

West Ham lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Hermansen
  2. 5 Morato
  3. 3 M. Kilman
  4. 15 K. Mavropanos
  5. 2 K. Walker-Peters
  6. 10 M. Solomon
  7. 14 D. Mukasa
  8. 7 A. Engels
  9. 20 J. Bowen
  10. 11 V. Castellanos
  11. 17 M. Kanté

Bench: J. Piroe, Pablo, A. Areola, T. Souček, O. Scarles, E. Austbö, A. Golambeckis, L. Orford, Ezra Mayers

Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Daniel Peretz
  2. 3 R. Manning
  3. 13 K. Schlotterbeck
  4. 5 J. Stephens
  5. 14 J. Bree
  6. 8 C. Jander
  7. 30 J. Ward-Prowse
  8. 7 Léo Scienza
  9. 10 F. Azaz
  10. 27 K. Matsuki
  11. 11 L. Dobbin

Bench: M. Roerslev, Z. Abbott, N. Wood-Gordon, T. Fellows, S. Edozie, G. Long, Cameron Bragg, D. Mubama, Welington

West Ham vs Southampton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: West Ham 4 · draws 4 · Southampton 2.

West HamDrawsSouthampton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-25Southampton1-4West HamLeague Cup
2025-04-19West Ham1-1SouthamptonPremier League
2024-12-26Southampton0-1West HamPremier League
2023-04-02West Ham1-0SouthamptonPremier League
2022-10-16Southampton1-1West HamPremier League
2022-03-02Southampton3-1West HamFA Cup
2021-12-26West Ham2-3SouthamptonPremier League
2021-09-11Southampton0-0West HamPremier League
2021-05-23West Ham3-0SouthamptonPremier League
2020-12-29Southampton0-0West HamPremier League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match