Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

Sheffield Utd vs Derby

· Bramall Lane, Sheffield· Referee Steve Martin

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Sheffield Utd to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sheffield UtdDrawDerby

Sheffield Utd vs Derby: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSheffield UtdDrawDerby
Model63%23%14%
Market53%25%22%
Published56%24%20%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sheffield Utd vs Derby odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Utd, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.83Now 1.77 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sheffield Utd1.831.77-0.06
Draw3.653.82+0.17
Derby3.924.36+0.44

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sheffield Utd and Derby expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Sheffield Utd
0.83Derby
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Sheffield Utd / Derby)
1.07 / 0.73
Defence rating (Sheffield Utd / Derby)
0.93 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sheffield Utd vs Derby score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1 11.0% 11.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 3 7.7% 6.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 5.9% 4.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Sheffield Utd goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sheffield Utd vs Derby goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sheffield Utd vs Derby

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sheffield Utd56%1.79
Draw24%4.11
Derby20%5.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Sheffield Utd or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Derby)44%2.26
Handicap -1Sheffield Utd win by 2+39%2.56
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sheffield Utd and Derby recent form

Sheffield Utd 2W 0D 4L
Derby 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sheffield Utd at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

Derby away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Utd at home only, Derby away only.

Injuries & availability

Sheffield Utd absences

  • J. Shackleton health problems
  • M. Doherty injury

Derby absences

  • A. Mowatt health problems
  • C. Forsyth knee injury
  • C. Taylor injury
  • D. Murkin hamstring injury
  • E. Cashin inactive
  • J. Widell Zetterstrom knee injury
  • L. Travis ankle injury
  • M. Clarke calf injury
  • M. Johnston inactive
  • P. Agyemang achilles tendon injury
  • S. Langas injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sheffield Utd lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Cooper
  2. 14 H. Burrows
  3. 15 L. Kitching
  4. 5 J. Tanganga
  5. 8 H. Choudhury
  6. 27 K. Phillips
  7. 4 O. Arblaster
  8. 19 T. Chong
  9. 9 T. Cannon
  10. 22 B. Brereton
  11. 45 P. Bamford

Bench: S. McCallum, J. Rothwell, J. Ayew, R. Donovan, T. Campbell, J. Baptiste, F. Seriki, Sydie Peck

Derby lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Widell Zetterström
  2. 26 R. Hedges
  3. 28 D. Sanderson
  4. 24 R. Nyambe
  5. 23 J. Ward
  6. 4 D. Ozoh
  7. 8 B. Clark
  8. 10 R. Brewster
  9. 11 S. Szmodics
  10. 19 H. Meister
  11. 9 C. Morris

Bench: F. Bilbija, J. Robinson, L. Salvesen, M. Fuseini, A. Mowatt, M. Johnston, O. Fraulo, J. Vickers, C. Blackett-Taylor

Sheffield Utd vs Derby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sheffield Utd 8 · draws 0 · Derby 2.

Sheffield UtdDrawsDerby
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Derby1-2Sheffield UtdEngland Championship
2025-11-01Sheffield Utd1-3DerbyEngland Championship
2025-02-01Derby0-1Sheffield UtdChampionship
2024-09-21Sheffield Utd1-0DerbyChampionship
2023-07-29Derby1-3Sheffield UtdFriendlies Clubs
2022-01-15Derby2-0Sheffield UtdChampionship
2021-09-25Sheffield Utd1-0DerbyChampionship
2021-08-24Sheffield Utd2-1DerbyLeague Cup
2020-09-01Derby0-2Sheffield UtdFriendlies Clubs
2018-12-26Sheffield Utd3-1DerbyChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match