Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

Cardiff vs Birmingham

· Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff· Referee Tim Robinson

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Birmingham to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CardiffDrawBirmingham

Cardiff vs Birmingham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCardiffDrawBirmingham
Model34%23%43%
Market35%25%40%
Published35%25%40%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cardiff vs Birmingham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.50Now 2.38 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cardiff2.522.70+0.18
Draw3.623.70+0.08
Birmingham2.502.38-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cardiff and Birmingham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Cardiff
1.95Birmingham
Total expected goals
3.67
Attack rating (Cardiff / Birmingham)
1.38 / 1.34
Defence rating (Cardiff / Birmingham)
1.19 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cardiff vs Birmingham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 4.1% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1 3.5% 9.4% 8.3% 5.4% 4.1% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3 2.2% 4.2% 4.1% 2.7% 2.0% 4+ 1.4% 2.7% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3%

Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cardiff vs Birmingham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cardiff vs Birmingham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cardiff35%2.89
Draw25%4.01
Birmingham40%2.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.44
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.48
Double chance1X (Cardiff or draw)60%1.68
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Birmingham)65%1.53
Handicap -1Birmingham win by 2+24%4.11
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cardiff and Birmingham recent form

Cardiff 2W 2D 2L
Birmingham 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cardiff at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-0
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Birmingham away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Birmingham away only.

Injuries & availability

Cardiff absences

  • C. Chambers knee injury
  • D. Lawlor hamstring injury
  • G. Osho suspended
  • P. Ng inactive
  • R. Colwill ankle injury

Birmingham absences

  • M. Leonard achilles tendon injury
  • Paik Seung-Ho health problems

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Cardiff lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Trott
  2. 3 J. Bagan
  3. 5 K. Bielik
  4. 2 W. Fish
  5. 38 P. Ng
  6. 8 J. Moylan
  7. 18 A. Robertson
  8. 45 Cian Ashford
  9. 27 J. Colwill
  10. 11 O. Tanner
  11. 23 C. Scanlon

Bench: Y. Salech, D. Turnbull, C. Willock, H. Tyrer, R. Tankiewicz, I. Davies, R. Kpakio, T. Perrett

Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Beadle
  2. 20 A. Cochrane
  3. 4 C. Klarer
  4. 5 P. Neumann
  5. 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
  6. 14 J. Solis
  7. 24 T. Iwata
  8. 17 L. Millar
  9. 28 J. Stansfield
  10. 7 Carlos Vicente
  11. 32 L. Vázquez

Bench: E. Laird, L. Buchanan, D. Gray, P. Roberts, M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, R. Allsop, D. Fry, M. Ducksch

Cardiff vs Birmingham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cardiff 6 · draws 3 · Birmingham 1.

CardiffDrawsBirmingham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-10Birmingham0-1CardiffChampionship
2023-12-13Cardiff0-1BirminghamChampionship
2023-08-29Birmingham1-3CardiffLeague Cup
2023-02-14Birmingham0-2CardiffChampionship
2022-08-13Cardiff1-0BirminghamChampionship
2022-04-30Cardiff1-1BirminghamChampionship
2021-12-11Birmingham2-2CardiffChampionship
2021-05-01Birmingham0-4CardiffChampionship
2020-12-16Cardiff3-2BirminghamChampionship
2020-01-18Birmingham1-1CardiffChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match