Charlton vs Norwich: model vs market
| Source | Charlton | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Charlton vs Norwich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Norwich, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 3.28 | 3.20 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 | +0.00 |
| Norwich | 2.09 | 2.16 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charlton and Norwich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Charlton / Norwich)
- 0.79 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Charlton / Norwich)
- 1.20 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlton vs Norwich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlton goals. Columns: Norwich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlton vs Norwich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlton vs Norwich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Norwich | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlton or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Norwich) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Charlton and Norwich recent form
Charlton
0W 4D 2L
Norwich
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlton at home only, Norwich away only.
Injuries & availability
Charlton absences
-
C. Sichenje
knee injury
- R. Apter knee injury
Norwich absences
-
A. Ahmed
knee injury
- G. Forsyth lacking match fitness
-
M. Topic
lacking match fitness
-
M. Toure
shoulder injury
- P. A. Diallo injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Charlton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 3 J. Edwards
- 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
- 5 L. Jones
- 2 K. Ramsay
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 6 C. Coventry
- 7 T. Campbell
- 14 S. Carey
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 23 C. Kelman
Bench: H. Knibbs, M. Leaburn, A. Bell, I. Mesík, M. Alli, W. Mannion, A. Mwamba, Micah Mbick, Tyler Bindon
Norwich lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 6 H. Darling
- 15 Ruairi McConville
- 3 J. Stacey
- 7 P. Mattsson
- 16 Jacob Wright
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 25 P. Maghoma
- 11 A. Brooks
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
Bench: V. Kovačević, D. Yongwa, A. Crnac, K. McLean, J. Makama, S. Field, J. Córdoba, K. Fisher, A. Musaba
Charlton vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Charlton 1 · draws 0 · Norwich 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Charlton | 0-1 | Norwich | England Championship |
| 2025-12-26 | Norwich | 1-0 | Charlton | England Championship |
| 2022-01-09 | Charlton | 0-1 | Norwich | FA Cup |
| 2017-08-22 | Norwich | 4-1 | Charlton | League Cup |
| 2015-02-10 | Charlton | 2-3 | Norwich | Championship |
| 2014-09-30 | Norwich | 0-1 | Charlton | Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Bolton vs Middlesbrough 2026-10-23
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Portsmouth vs Millwall 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Charlton, previous: Watford v Charlton analysis
- Charlton, next: Middlesbrough vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Norwich, previous: Norwich v Portsmouth analysis
- Norwich, next: Norwich v Watford analysis