Bolton vs Middlesbrough: model vs market
| Source | Bolton | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 59% |
| Published | 24% | 22% | 53% |
| Edge | +5% | +1% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 4.38 | 4.80 | +0.42 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.33 | +0.18 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.65 | 1.60 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bolton and Middlesbrough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Bolton / Middlesbrough)
- 1.07 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Bolton / Middlesbrough)
- 1.06 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolton vs Middlesbrough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 24% | 4.13 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Middlesbrough | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolton or draw) | 47% | 2.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Middlesbrough) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bolton and Middlesbrough recent form
Bolton
3W 1D 2L
Middlesbrough
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Middlesbrough away only.
Injuries & availability
Bolton absences
-
C. Forino-Joseph
groin injury
- J. Nelson inactive
Middlesbrough absences
-
A. Jones
calf injury
- D. Strelec injury
- R. Pukstas injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 G. Bazunu
- 14 A. Famewo
- 5 L. Brunt
- 18 E. Toal
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
- 21 E. Erhahon
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 11 T. Gale
- 20 Ruben Rodrigues
- 7 K. Dong
- 9 T. Bair
Bench: J. Bonham, X. Simons, B. Davies, S. Dalby, S. Iling-Junior, A. Ito, M. Conway, Luca Stephenson, R. Hardie
Middlesbrough lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 R. Vítek
- 30 Neto Borges
- 29 A. Malanda
- 4 A. Phillips
- 2 C. Brittain
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 10 A. Morris
- 9 T. Conway
- 8 R. McGree
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 7 W. Lankshear
Bench: S. Byram, L. Ayling, M. Peart-Harris, J. Sarmiento, M. Arfsten, C. Barron, Leo Castledine, K. Joseph, S. Brynn
Bolton vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bolton 0 · draws 0 · Middlesbrough 10.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Middlesbrough | 3-0 | Bolton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-08-29 | Bolton | 1-3 | Middlesbrough | League Cup |
| 2019-04-09 | Bolton | 0-2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2018-09-19 | Middlesbrough | 2-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2017-12-26 | Middlesbrough | 2-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2017-09-09 | Bolton | 0-3 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2016-04-16 | Bolton | 1-2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 2015-08-15 | Middlesbrough | 3-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2015-02-24 | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2014-08-19 | Bolton | 1-2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sheffield Utd v Derby — match page 2026-10-24
- Charlton vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Portsmouth vs Millwall 2026-10-24
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford — match page 2026-10-24
- Cardiff vs Birmingham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- West Ham vs Southampton 2026-10-24
- Preston v West Brom — match page 2026-10-24
- Blackburn vs Wrexham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Bolton, previous: Southampton – Bolton, 2026-10-17
- Bolton, next: Bolton v Bristol City analysis
- Middlesbrough, previous: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff prediction
- Middlesbrough, next: Middlesbrough vs Charlton: odds and pick